The model missed the final outcome (Amkar win 0–3).
The model had projected Irtysh Omsk at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Irtysh Omsk Amkar ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irtysh Omsk | 36.1% | 5.9% | +30.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 18.0% | +11.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Amkar | 34.2% | 76.1% | -41.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Amkar's win probability at 76.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 41.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Amkar win 0–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Irtysh Omsk by 41.9 percentage points (78.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 14:28 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Amkar 34.2%
- xG · Irtysh Omsk 1.32 — Amkar 1.28
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Irtysh Omsk 15.25 · Draw 5.00 · Amkar 1.18
- Implied 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 5.9% · Draw 18.0% · Amkar 76.1%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Irtysh Omsk 15.25 · Draw 5.00 · Amkar 1.18
- Implied 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 5.9% · Draw 18.0% · Amkar 76.1%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Amkar win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (42 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Amkar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Irtysh Omsk | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Dinamo Moskva II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 9 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 23 |
| 2 | Amkar | 9 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 10 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 19 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 12 |
| 5 | Irtysh Omsk | 10 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 7 |
| 6 | Dinamo Stavropol | 9 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 7 | Dinamo Moskva II | 10 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 7 |
