Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkösliiga / Kooteepee vs PK-35

Prediction Audit: Kooteepee vs PK-35 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kooteepee Kooteepee
Jul 18, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 64%
PK-35 PK-35

The model missed the final outcome (PK-35 win 0–1).

The model had projected Kooteepee at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kooteepee PK-35 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kooteepee higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kooteepee -11.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kooteepee 44.3% 55.5% -11.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.6% 25.6% +3.0 pp Aligned
PK-35 27.1% 19.0% +8.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Kooteepee's win probability at 55.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was PK-35 win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kooteepee than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Kooteepee; match finished PK-35

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kooteepee by 11.1 percentage points (55.4% vs model 44.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 20:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kooteepee 44.3% · Draw 28.6% · PK-35 27.1%
    • xG · Kooteepee 1.40 — PK-35 1.20
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kooteepee 1.71 · Draw 3.71 · PK-35 5.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Kooteepee 55.5% · Draw 25.6% · PK-35 19.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Kooteepee 1.71 · Draw 3.71 · PK-35 5.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Kooteepee 55.5% · Draw 25.6% · PK-35 19.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result PK-35 win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1537086

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result PK-35 win · Kooteepee 0–1 PK-35
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ykkösliiga
  • Fixture: Kooteepee vs PK-35
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Kooteepee 1.4 — PK-35 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkösliiga Ykkösliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kooteepee 25 18 4 3 58
2 PK-35 24 14 6 4 48
3 Haka 25 13 5 7 44
4 JIPPO 24 11 7 6 40
5 JäPS 24 11 2 11 35
6 MP 25 8 5 12 29
7 EIF 24 8 4 12 28
8 KäPa 25 6 6 13 24
9 Klubi-04 24 4 8 12 20
10 SJK Akatemia 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haka 25 47 29 +18 44
2 Kooteepee 25 45 22 +23 58
3 PK-35 24 41 18 +23 48
4 JIPPO 24 32 21 +11 40
5 KäPa 25 30 45 -15 24
6 EIF 24 28 36 -8 28
7 Klubi-04 24 28 36 -8 20
8 MP 25 27 35 -8 29
9 JäPS 24 22 34 -12 35
10 SJK Akatemia 24 16 40 -24 13