Prediction Audit: Rio Branco ES vs Porto BA Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

AI correctly predicted the Rio Branco ES win.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Model vs Closing Market

Post Match Insights

Prediction Timeline

Historical Snapshot

Validation Report

Review FAQ

AI match briefing

What worked

What failed

Market lesson

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

Related Predictions

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Serie D — Standings

Rio Branco ES

Jun 14, 2026 - 20:00

4 1.44

0 1.16

xG Accuracy: 36%

Porto BA

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Rio Branco ES	41.9%	67.2%	-25.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.3%	21.9%	+7.4 pp	Model Higher
Porto BA	28.8%	10.9%	+17.9 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Rio Branco ES's win probability at 67.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 25.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rio Branco ES win 4–0).

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rio Branco ES higher (67.2% vs model 41.9%, 25.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rio Branco ES win 4–0).

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How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 14, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rio Branco ES 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Porto BA 28.8%
- xG · Rio Branco ES 1.44 — Porto BA 1.16
Jun 14, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rio Branco ES 1.32 · Draw 4.05 · Porto BA 8.11
- Implied 1X2 · Rio Branco ES 67.2% · Draw 21.9% · Porto BA 10.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jun 14, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rio Branco ES 1.32 · Draw 4.05 · Porto BA 8.11
- Implied 1X2 · Rio Branco ES 67.2% · Draw 21.9% · Porto BA 10.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jun 14, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Rio Branco ES win · 4–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (25 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 32/100

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2938651

Closing Odds 1.32

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Rio Branco ES win · Rio Branco ES 4–0 Porto BA

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie D
Fixture: Rio Branco ES vs Porto BA
Kickoff: 2026-06-14 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Rio Branco ES 1.44 — Porto BA 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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