Predictions / Football / Iceland. Úrvalsdeild / FH hafnarfjordur vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Prediction Audit: FH hafnarfjordur vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FH hafnarfjordur FH hafnarfjordur
Jun 28, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar IBV Vestmannaeyjar

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected FH hafnarfjordur at 39.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FH hafnarfjordur Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices FH hafnarfjordur higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FH hafnarfjordur -5.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FH hafnarfjordur 39.1% 44.2% -5.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.7% 22.6% +5.1 pp Model Higher
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 33.2% 33.1% +0.1 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates FH hafnarfjordur's win probability at 44.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.1%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on FH hafnarfjordur. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FH hafnarfjordur; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FH hafnarfjordur by 5.2 percentage points (44.3% vs model 39.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 28, 2026 · 20:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FH hafnarfjordur 39.1% · Draw 27.7% · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 33.2%
    • xG · FH hafnarfjordur 1.33 — IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.27
  2. Jun 28, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FH hafnarfjordur 2.06 · Draw 4.27 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3.01
    • Implied 1X2 · FH hafnarfjordur 46.1% · Draw 22.3% · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 28, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FH hafnarfjordur 2.15 · Draw 4.21 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · FH hafnarfjordur 44.2% · Draw 22.6% · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 33.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 28, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 74/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1479174

Closing Odds 2.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · FH hafnarfjordur 1–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Úrvalsdeild
  • Fixture: FH hafnarfjordur vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): FH hafnarfjordur 1.33 — IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Úrvalsdeild Úrvalsdeild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 53
2 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 6 3 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30
5 IA Akranes 22 8 6 8 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 28
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 3 11 27
9 FH hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KR Reykjavik 22 74 49 +25 44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 67 21 +46 53
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 56 42 +14 45
4 Breidablik 22 43 41 +2 30
5 Stjarnan 22 42 50 -8 28
6 IA Akranes 22 39 41 -2 30
7 Valur Reykjavik 22 39 45 -6 27
8 KA Akureyri 22 35 48 -13 20
9 Keflavik 22 33 38 -5 28
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 32 45 -13 18
11 FH hafnarfjordur 22 27 39 -12 21
12 Thor Akureyri 22 22 50 -28 21