Predictions / Football / Iceland. 1. Deild / IR Reykjavik vs Throttur Reykjavik

Prediction Audit: IR Reykjavik vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

IR Reykjavik IR Reykjavik
Jul 10, 2026 - 19:15
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Throttur Reykjavik Throttur Reykjavik

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected IR Reykjavik at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 IR Reykjavik Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Throttur Reykjavik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Throttur Reykjavik -18.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
IR Reykjavik 35.2% 24.6% +10.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 22.0% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Throttur Reykjavik 35.2% 53.4% -18.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Throttur Reykjavik's win probability at 53.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Throttur Reykjavik than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned IR Reykjavik; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on IR Reykjavik by 18.2 percentage points (53.5% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 10, 2026 · 20:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · IR Reykjavik 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Throttur Reykjavik 35.2%
    • xG · IR Reykjavik 1.30 — Throttur Reykjavik 1.30
  2. Jul 10, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · IR Reykjavik 3.74 · Draw 4.12 · Throttur Reykjavik 1.76
    • Implied 1X2 · IR Reykjavik 24.8% · Draw 22.5% · Throttur Reykjavik 52.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 10, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · IR Reykjavik 3.82 · Draw 4.28 · Throttur Reykjavik 1.76
    • Implied 1X2 · IR Reykjavik 24.6% · Draw 22.0% · Throttur Reykjavik 53.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 10, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1482671

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · IR Reykjavik 1–1 Throttur Reykjavik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Deild
  • Fixture: IR Reykjavik vs Throttur Reykjavik
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-10 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): IR Reykjavik 1.3 — Throttur Reykjavik 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Deild 1. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Afturelding 22 14 3 5 45
2 Throttur Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43
3 Fylkir 22 13 1 8 40
4 HK Kopavogur 22 12 2 8 38
5 Njardvik 22 12 2 8 38
6 Leiknir R. 22 8 4 10 28
7 IR Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28
8 Grotta 22 8 3 11 27
9 Vestri 22 8 3 11 27
10 Völsungur 22 7 5 10 26
11 Grindavik 22 5 10 7 25
12 Ægir 22 2 3 17 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Afturelding 22 65 33 +32 45
2 HK Kopavogur 22 52 40 +12 38
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 50 25 +25 43
4 Fylkir 22 49 36 +13 40
5 IR Reykjavik 22 40 46 -6 28
6 Njardvik 22 38 29 +9 38
7 Grotta 22 36 43 -7 27
8 Leiknir R. 22 34 33 +1 28
9 Völsungur 22 32 44 -12 26
10 Vestri 22 30 43 -13 27
11 Grindavik 22 25 35 -10 25
12 Ægir 22 25 69 -44 9