Prediction Audit: Shangyu Pterosaur vs Hubei Chufeng Heli Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shangyu Pterosaur

Jul 04, 2026 - 11:30

4 1.32

4 1.28

xG Accuracy: 23%

Hubei Chufeng Heli

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 4–4).

The model had projected Shangyu Pterosaur at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Shangyu Pterosaur Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Shangyu Pterosaur	36.1%	29.5%	+6.6 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	27.2%	+2.5 pp	Aligned
Hubei Chufeng Heli	34.2%	43.3%	-9.1 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hubei Chufeng Heli's win probability at 43.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 4–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hubei Chufeng Heli. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
1X2: model leaned Shangyu Pterosaur; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Shangyu Pterosaur by 9.1 percentage points (45.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 04, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shangyu Pterosaur 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Hubei Chufeng Heli 34.2%
- xG · Shangyu Pterosaur 1.32 — Hubei Chufeng Heli 1.28
Jul 04, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shangyu Pterosaur 2.99 · Draw 3.25 · Hubei Chufeng Heli 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · Shangyu Pterosaur 29.5% · Draw 27.2% · Hubei Chufeng Heli 43.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 04, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shangyu Pterosaur 2.99 · Draw 3.25 · Hubei Chufeng Heli 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · Shangyu Pterosaur 29.5% · Draw 27.2% · Hubei Chufeng Heli 43.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 04, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 4–4
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1479378

Closing Odds 2.04

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Shangyu Pterosaur 4–4 Hubei Chufeng Heli

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: League Two
Fixture: Shangyu Pterosaur vs Hubei Chufeng Heli
Kickoff: 2026-07-04 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
xG (showing): Shangyu Pterosaur 1.32 — Hubei Chufeng Heli 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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