Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. First League / Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia

Prediction Audit: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia
Jul 25, 2026 - 18:15
1 1.80
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 68%
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia

The model missed the final outcome (Levski Sofia win 1–2).

The model had projected Lokomotiv Sofia at 39.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lokomotiv Sofia Levski Sofia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Levski Sofia higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Levski Sofia -27.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lokomotiv Sofia 39.4% 17.2% +22.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 26.1% 21.2% +4.8 pp Aligned
Levski Sofia 34.5% 61.5% -27.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Levski Sofia's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.5%, a difference of 27.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Levski Sofia win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.17) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Lokomotiv Sofia; match finished Levski Sofia

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lokomotiv Sofia by 27.0 percentage points (66.4% vs model 39.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 23:13 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lokomotiv Sofia 39.3% · Draw 26.1% · Levski Sofia 34.6%
    • xG · Lokomotiv Sofia 1.80 — Levski Sofia 1.37
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv Sofia 6.19 · Draw 4.63 · Levski Sofia 1.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv Sofia 15.3% · Draw 20.4% · Levski Sofia 64.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv Sofia 5.51 · Draw 4.46 · Levski Sofia 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv Sofia 17.2% · Draw 21.2% · Levski Sofia 61.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Levski Sofia win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456847

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds 2.1
CLV Pending
Final Result Levski Sofia win · Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 Levski Sofia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 47.7%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Bulgarian First League
  • Fixture: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Lokomotiv Sofia 1.8 — Levski Sofia 1.37 (total xG ≈ 3.17)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 23
4 CSKA 1948 10 7 1 2 22
5 Arda Kardzhali 10 5 2 3 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8
11 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 1 4 5 7
12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 7
13 Cherno More Varna 10 1 3 6 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 10 24 7 +17 24
2 Levski Sofia 9 21 4 +17 25
3 CSKA 1948 10 19 10 +9 22
4 Ludogorets 9 16 7 +9 23
5 Botev Plovdiv 10 16 14 +2 16
6 Arda Kardzhali 10 15 12 +3 17
7 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 11 18 -7 7
8 Cherno More Varna 10 11 20 -9 6
9 Spartak Varna 10 10 15 -5 10
10 Dunav Ruse 10 10 19 -9 5
11 Slavia Sofia 10 9 8 +1 11
12 Botev Vratsa 10 9 19 -10 9
13 Septemvri Sofia 10 8 18 -10 8
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 5 13 -8 7