Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Cusco vs Alianza Atletico

Prediction Audit: Cusco vs Alianza Atletico Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cusco Cusco
Jul 18, 2026 - 23:30
4 2.24
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico

AI correctly predicted the Cusco win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cusco Cusco ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Alianza Atletico considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Alianza Atletico +5.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cusco 57.3% 62.2% -4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 22.1% 22.6% -0.5 pp Aligned
Alianza Atletico 20.6% 15.1% +5.4 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Alianza Atletico's win probability at 20.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 15.1%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cusco win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Alianza Atletico.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.55) — 5 goals materialised
  • Cusco attacking xG significantly stronger (2.24 vs 1.31)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cusco more conservatively (51.9% vs model 57.3%, 5.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cusco win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cusco 57.4% · Draw 22.1% · Alianza Atletico 20.5%
    • xG · Cusco 2.24 — Alianza Atletico 1.31
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cusco 1.49 · Draw 4.10 · Alianza Atletico 6.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Cusco 62.2% · Draw 22.6% · Alianza Atletico 15.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cusco 1.49 · Draw 4.10 · Alianza Atletico 6.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Cusco 62.2% · Draw 22.6% · Alianza Atletico 15.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cusco win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 70/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (66%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 73/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1472284

Closing Odds 6.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cusco win · Cusco 4–1 Alianza Atletico
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Peruvian Primera División
  • Fixture: Cusco vs Alianza Atletico
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 57.4% · Draw 22.1% · Away 20.5%
  • xG (showing): Cusco 2.24 — Alianza Atletico 1.31 (total xG ≈ 3.55)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 31.2% · Over 2.5 68.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 66.3% · No 33.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.3% · No 33.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions