Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Leobendorf vs Traiskirchen

Prediction Audit: Leobendorf vs Traiskirchen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leobendorf Leobendorf
Jun 03, 2026 - 17:30
5 1.08
1 0.90
xG Accuracy: 33%
Traiskirchen Traiskirchen

AI correctly predicted the Leobendorf win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Leobendorf Leobendorf ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +11.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Leobendorf 37.5% 40.5% -3.0 pp Aligned
Draw 34.4% 22.5% +11.9 pp Model Edge
Traiskirchen 28.1% 37.0% -8.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 34.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Leobendorf win 5–1).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Leobendorf more conservatively (25.6% vs model 37.5%, 11.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Leobendorf win 5–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 06, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Leobendorf 37.6% · Draw 34.4% · Traiskirchen 28.1%
    • xG · Leobendorf 1.08 — Traiskirchen 0.90
  2. Jun 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Leobendorf 2.19 · Draw 3.95 · Traiskirchen 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Leobendorf 40.5% · Draw 22.5% · Traiskirchen 37.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Leobendorf 2.19 · Draw 3.95 · Traiskirchen 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Leobendorf 40.5% · Draw 22.5% · Traiskirchen 37.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 03, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Leobendorf win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1538719

Closing Odds 3.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Leobendorf win · Leobendorf 5–1 Traiskirchen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: Leobendorf vs Traiskirchen
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-06 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 34.4% · Away 28.1%
  • xG (showing): Leobendorf 1.08 — Traiskirchen 0.9 (total xG ≈ 1.98)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 68.2% · Implied: 29.9% · Probability edge: +38.3 pts · Est. EV: +125.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.9% · No 59.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions