Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver / Urozhay vs Tyumen

Prediction Audit: Urozhay vs Tyumen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Urozhay Urozhay
Jun 06, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.34
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 65%
Tyumen Tyumen

The model missed the final outcome (Urozhay win 1–0).

The model had projected Tyumen at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tyumen Urozhay ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tyumen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tyumen -30.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Urozhay 35.0% 12.5% +22.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.8% 21.9% +7.9 pp Model Higher
Tyumen 35.2% 65.6% -30.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tyumen's win probability at 65.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 30.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Urozhay win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Tyumen; match finished Urozhay

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tyumen by 30.4 percentage points (65.6% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 06, 2026 · 18:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Urozhay 35.0% · Draw 29.8% · Tyumen 35.2%
    • xG · Urozhay 1.34 — Tyumen 1.22
  2. Jun 06, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Urozhay 7.20 · Draw 4.10 · Tyumen 1.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Urozhay 12.5% · Draw 21.9% · Tyumen 65.6%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Jun 06, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Urozhay 7.20 · Draw 4.10 · Tyumen 1.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Urozhay 12.5% · Draw 21.9% · Tyumen 65.6%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Jun 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Urozhay win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2532113

Closing Odds 1.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Urozhay win · Urozhay 1–0 Tyumen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Tyumen; market prices Tyumen instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Urozhay 1.34 xG vs Tyumen 1.22 → Tyumen 35.2%
  • Market: Tyumen ~65.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 52.8% · Over 2.5 47.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Silver Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rodina Moskva II 14 7 4 3 25
2 Kaluga 14 7 3 4 24
3 Torpedo Miass 14 4 8 2 20
4 Irtysh Omsk 14 4 7 3 19
5 Urozhay 14 4 6 4 18
6 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 5 2 7 17
7 Avangard Kursk 14 3 4 7 13
8 Murom 14 2 6 6 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kaluga 14 20 14 +6 24
2 Rodina Moskva II 14 18 12 +6 25
3 Irtysh Omsk 14 15 13 +2 19
4 Torpedo Miass 14 14 12 +2 20
5 Urozhay 14 14 14 0 18
6 Avangard Kursk 14 14 23 -9 13
7 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 13 16 -3 17
8 Murom 14 13 17 -4 12
Second League A - Division A Silver Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver Predictions