Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL / Hodonín vs Vítkovice

Prediction Audit: Hodonín vs Vítkovice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hodonín Hodonín
Jun 06, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.70
2 1.41
xG Accuracy: 70%
Vítkovice Vítkovice

The model missed the final outcome (Vítkovice win 1–2).

The model had projected Hodonín at 43.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hodonín Vítkovice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hodonín higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hodonín -24.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hodonín 43.1% 67.4% -24.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.3% 19.5% +6.8 pp Model Higher
Vítkovice 30.6% 13.1% +17.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Hodonín's win probability at 67.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.1%, a difference of 24.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Vítkovice win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.11) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Hodonín; match finished Vítkovice

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hodonín by 24.3 percentage points (67.4% vs model 43.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 07, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hodonín 43.1% · Draw 26.3% · Vítkovice 30.6%
    • xG · Hodonín 1.70 — Vítkovice 1.41
  2. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hodonín 1.33 · Draw 4.60 · Vítkovice 6.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Hodonín 67.4% · Draw 19.5% · Vítkovice 13.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hodonín 1.33 · Draw 4.60 · Vítkovice 6.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Hodonín 67.4% · Draw 19.5% · Vítkovice 13.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Jun 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vítkovice win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1604086

Closing Odds 1.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vítkovice win · Hodonín 1–2 Vítkovice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - MSFL
  • Fixture: Hodonín vs Vítkovice
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-07 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.1% · Draw 26.3% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Hodonín 1.7 — Vítkovice 1.41 (total xG ≈ 3.11)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.9% · Over 2.5 60.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 63.2% · No 36.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.2% · No 36.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Třinec 34 23 7 4 76
2 Hodonín 33 21 7 5 70
3 Sigma Olomouc II 34 19 6 10 62
4 Zbrojovka Brno II 33 19 4 10 61
5 Uničov 33 17 11 6 61
6 Frýdek-Místek 33 16 10 7 58
7 Vrchovina 33 16 7 10 55
8 Unie Hlubina 33 13 8 12 47
9 Vsetín 33 13 6 14 45
10 Zlín II 34 11 10 13 43
11 Vítkovice 33 11 7 15 40
12 Slovácko II 33 9 11 13 38
13 Polanka nad Odrou 34 9 8 17 35
14 Hranice 33 7 9 17 30
15 Blansko 33 9 3 21 30
16 Karviná II 33 7 8 18 29
17 Hlučín 33 6 7 20 25
18 Start Brno 33 4 12 18 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Třinec 34 75 27 +48 76
2 Hodonín 33 75 36 +39 70
3 Sigma Olomouc II 34 71 33 +38 62
4 Zbrojovka Brno II 33 67 46 +21 61
5 Vrchovina 33 63 49 +14 55
6 Zlín II 34 57 64 -7 43
7 Frýdek-Místek 33 52 37 +15 58
8 Uničov 33 52 41 +11 61
9 Unie Hlubina 33 51 47 +4 47
10 Vsetín 33 51 52 -1 45
11 Slovácko II 33 48 54 -6 38
12 Vítkovice 33 46 55 -9 40
13 Blansko 33 44 77 -33 30
14 Hlučín 33 39 72 -33 25
15 Karviná II 33 38 59 -21 29
16 Hranice 33 37 58 -21 30
17 Polanka nad Odrou 34 37 62 -25 35
18 Start Brno 33 32 66 -34 24
3. liga - MSFL Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL Predictions