Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga A / FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco

Prediction Audit: FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FCI Levadia II FCI Levadia II
Jun 18, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
Tartu Welco Tartu Welco

AI correctly predicted the Tartu Welco win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tartu Welco Tartu Welco ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tartu Welco higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tartu Welco -18.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FCI Levadia II 31.5% 21.4% +10.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 27.2% 19.3% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Tartu Welco 41.2% 59.3% -18.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tartu Welco's win probability at 59.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.2%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tartu Welco win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tartu Welco than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tartu Welco higher (59.2% vs model 41.2%, 18.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tartu Welco win 1–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 18, 2026 · 19:39 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FCI Levadia II 31.5% · Draw 27.2% · Tartu Welco 41.3%
    • xG · FCI Levadia II 1.31 — Tartu Welco 1.29
  2. Jun 18, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FCI Levadia II 3.92 · Draw 4.34 · Tartu Welco 1.56
    • Implied 1X2 · FCI Levadia II 22.6% · Draw 20.4% · Tartu Welco 56.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 18, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FCI Levadia II 4.12 · Draw 4.58 · Tartu Welco 1.49
    • Implied 1X2 · FCI Levadia II 21.4% · Draw 19.3% · Tartu Welco 59.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 18, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tartu Welco win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1603736

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tartu Welco win · FCI Levadia II 1–3 Tartu Welco
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Esiliiga A
  • Fixture: FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-18 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): FCI Levadia II 1.31 — Tartu Welco 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga A Esiliiga A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 19 5 6 62
2 Viimsi 30 15 5 10 50
3 Flora II 30 14 6 10 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 48
5 FCI Levadia II 29 13 2 14 41
6 Maardu 28 12 5 11 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 37
8 Nõmme United II 30 10 6 14 36
9 FC Tallinn 30 8 8 14 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 6 4 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 81 39 +42 62
2 Flora II 30 72 53 +19 48
3 FCI Levadia II 29 60 55 +5 41
4 Viimsi 30 56 31 +25 50
5 Tallinna Kalev 29 52 55 -3 37
6 Nõmme United II 30 50 62 -12 36
7 Elva 30 47 44 +3 48
8 Maardu 28 47 59 -12 41
9 FC Tallinn 30 39 65 -26 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 38 79 -41 22