Predictions / Football / Australia. Northern NSW NPL / Kahibah vs Charlestown City Blues

Prediction Audit: Kahibah vs Charlestown City Blues Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kahibah Kahibah
Jun 21, 2026 - 05:00
4 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 46%
Charlestown City Blues Charlestown City Blues

The model missed the final outcome (Kahibah win 4–1).

The model had projected Charlestown City Blues at 38.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Charlestown City Blues Kahibah ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Charlestown City Blues higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Charlestown City Blues -16.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kahibah 34.0% 23.9% +10.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 27.7% 21.4% +6.3 pp Model Higher
Charlestown City Blues 38.4% 54.8% -16.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Charlestown City Blues's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.4%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kahibah win 4–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Charlestown City Blues than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Charlestown City Blues; match finished Kahibah

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Charlestown City Blues by 16.4 percentage points (54.8% vs model 38.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 21, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kahibah 34.0% · Draw 27.6% · Charlestown City Blues 38.3%
    • xG · Kahibah 1.37 — Charlestown City Blues 1.23
  2. Jun 21, 2026 · 04:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kahibah 3.78 · Draw 4.23 · Charlestown City Blues 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Kahibah 23.9% · Draw 21.4% · Charlestown City Blues 54.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 21, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kahibah 3.78 · Draw 4.23 · Charlestown City Blues 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Kahibah 23.9% · Draw 21.4% · Charlestown City Blues 54.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 21, 2026 · 05:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kahibah win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1811732

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kahibah win · Kahibah 4–1 Charlestown City Blues
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Northern NSW NPL
  • Fixture: Kahibah vs Charlestown City Blues
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Kahibah 1.37 — Charlestown City Blues 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Northern NSW NPL Matches Track Kahibah Next Match Prediction Track Charlestown City Blues Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Kahibah & Charlestown City Blues!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Northern NSW NPL Northern NSW NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 15 4 3 49
2 Maitland 22 13 3 6 42
3 Weston Bears 22 12 5 5 41
4 Edgeworth Eagles 22 11 6 5 39
5 Belmont Swansea 22 10 5 7 35
6 Cooks Hill United 22 9 6 7 33
7 Valentine 22 7 5 10 26
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 7 4 11 25
9 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 6 6 10 24
10 Hamilton Olympic 22 5 6 11 21
11 Kahibah 22 6 2 14 20
12 Charlestown City Blues 22 4 2 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 59 23 +36 49
2 Weston Bears 22 48 33 +15 41
3 Belmont Swansea 22 47 44 +3 35
4 Cooks Hill United 22 43 36 +7 33
5 Edgeworth Eagles 22 41 31 +10 39
6 Maitland 22 40 32 +8 42
7 Hamilton Olympic 22 39 40 -1 21
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 38 33 +5 25
9 Kahibah 22 35 53 -18 20
10 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 34 45 -11 24
11 Charlestown City Blues 22 25 62 -37 14
12 Valentine 22 22 39 -17 26