Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola Pro / Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra

Prediction Audit: Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ittihad Tanger Ittihad Tanger
Jun 21, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.19
0 1.06
xG Accuracy: 71%
CR Khemis Zemamra CR Khemis Zemamra

AI correctly predicted the Ittihad Tanger win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ittihad Tanger Ittihad Tanger ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: CR Khemis Zemamra -2.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ittihad Tanger 37.0% 36.6% +0.5 pp Aligned
Draw 31.8% 30.1% +1.6 pp Aligned
CR Khemis Zemamra 31.2% 33.3% -2.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ittihad Tanger win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Ittihad Tanger win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 21, 2026 · 20:08 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ittihad Tanger 37.1% · Draw 31.8% · CR Khemis Zemamra 31.2%
    • xG · Ittihad Tanger 1.19 — CR Khemis Zemamra 1.06
  2. Jun 21, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ittihad Tanger 2.43 · Draw 2.95 · CR Khemis Zemamra 2.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Ittihad Tanger 36.6% · Draw 30.1% · CR Khemis Zemamra 33.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ittihad Tanger 2.43 · Draw 2.95 · CR Khemis Zemamra 2.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Ittihad Tanger 36.6% · Draw 30.1% · CR Khemis Zemamra 33.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ittihad Tanger win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 89/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 20:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1763488

Closing Odds 2.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ittihad Tanger win · Ittihad Tanger 1–0 CR Khemis Zemamra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Botola Pro
  • Fixture: Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Ittihad Tanger 1.19 — CR Khemis Zemamra 1.06 (total xG ≈ 2.25)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola Pro Botola Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maghreb Fès 30 16 11 3 59
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 16 9 5 57
3 Raja Casablanca 30 16 8 6 56
4 FAR Rabat 30 13 16 1 55
5 Wydad AC 30 13 4 13 43
6 Difaa EL Jadida 30 9 13 8 40
7 Ittihad Tanger 30 9 12 9 39
8 FUS Rabat 30 9 10 11 37
9 Kawkab Marrakech 30 8 12 10 36
10 CODM Meknès 30 9 9 12 36
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 8 9 13 33
12 Hassania Agadir 30 8 9 13 33
13 UTS Rabat 30 6 13 11 31
14 Yacoub El Mansour 30 7 9 14 30
15 Olympique Dcheïra 30 7 9 14 30
16 Olympique Safi 30 3 13 14 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FAR Rabat 30 45 22 +23 55
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 44 27 +17 57
3 Maghreb Fès 30 40 17 +23 59
4 Raja Casablanca 30 39 19 +20 56
5 Wydad AC 30 39 33 +6 43
6 Yacoub El Mansour 30 34 44 -10 30
7 UTS Rabat 30 32 40 -8 31
8 FUS Rabat 30 31 36 -5 37
9 Difaa EL Jadida 30 30 34 -4 40
10 Olympique Dcheïra 30 29 40 -11 30
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 28 37 -9 33
12 Kawkab Marrakech 30 27 26 +1 36
13 Ittihad Tanger 30 27 31 -4 39
14 Hassania Agadir 30 27 39 -12 33
15 CODM Meknès 30 24 33 -9 36
16 Olympique Safi 30 24 42 -18 22
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