Predictions / Football / Lebanon. Premier League / Tadamon Sour vs Racing

Prediction Audit: Tadamon Sour vs Racing Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tadamon Sour Tadamon Sour
Jun 21, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.30
0 0.97
xG Accuracy: 70%
Racing Racing

AI correctly predicted the Tadamon Sour win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tadamon Sour Tadamon Sour ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tadamon Sour higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tadamon Sour -21.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tadamon Sour 53.7% 75.3% -21.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.8% 16.2% +11.5 pp Model Edge
Racing 18.6% 8.4% +10.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Tadamon Sour's win probability at 75.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 53.7%, a difference of 21.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tadamon Sour win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tadamon Sour higher (75.4% vs model 53.7%, 21.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tadamon Sour win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 21, 2026 · 19:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tadamon Sour 53.7% · Draw 27.8% · Racing 18.5%
    • xG · Tadamon Sour 1.30 — Racing 0.97
  2. Jun 21, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tadamon Sour 1.18 · Draw 5.47 · Racing 10.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Tadamon Sour 75.3% · Draw 16.2% · Racing 8.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 21, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tadamon Sour 1.18 · Draw 5.47 · Racing 10.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Tadamon Sour 75.3% · Draw 16.2% · Racing 8.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 21, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tadamon Sour win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1612053

Closing Odds 1.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tadamon Sour win · Tadamon Sour 1–0 Racing
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Tadamon Sour vs Racing
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Tadamon Sour 1.3 — Racing 0.97 (total xG ≈ 2.27)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53
2 Al Nejmeh 21 14 4 3 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 40
4 Jwaaya FC 21 11 5 5 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 30
7 Shabab Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 27
8 Al Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 22
9 Reyady Abaseya 21 5 5 11 20
10 Tadamon Sour 21 3 8 10 17
11 Bourj 11 3 1 7 10
12 Racing 21 0 1 20 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ansar 21 53 9 +44 53
2 Al Nejmeh 21 42 10 +32 46
3 Al Ahed 21 34 22 +12 40
4 Jwaaya FC 21 31 14 +17 38
5 Safa 21 30 17 +13 36
6 Al Hikma 21 29 27 +2 30
7 Shabab Al Sahel 21 22 21 +1 27
8 Reyady Abaseya 21 16 30 -14 20
9 Tadamon Sour 21 12 26 -14 17
10 Al Mabarrah 21 12 36 -24 22
11 Bourj 11 8 20 -12 10
12 Racing 21 4 61 -57 1