Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola Pro / Olympique Safi vs Yacoub El Mansour

Prediction Audit: Olympique Safi vs Yacoub El Mansour Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Olympique Safi Olympique Safi
Jun 21, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.12
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 71%
Yacoub El Mansour Yacoub El Mansour

The model missed the final outcome (Yacoub El Mansour win 0–1).

The model had projected Olympique Safi at 35.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Olympique Safi Yacoub El Mansour ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Olympique Safi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Olympique Safi -6.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Olympique Safi 35.7% 42.0% -6.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 31.3% 27.8% +3.5 pp Aligned
Yacoub El Mansour 33.0% 30.2% +2.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Olympique Safi's win probability at 42.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.7%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Yacoub El Mansour win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Olympique Safi. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Olympique Safi; match finished Yacoub El Mansour

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Olympique Safi by 6.3 percentage points (42.0% vs model 35.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 21, 2026 · 20:08 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Olympique Safi 35.7% · Draw 31.3% · Yacoub El Mansour 33.0%
    • xG · Olympique Safi 1.12 — Yacoub El Mansour 1.13
  2. Jun 21, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Olympique Safi 2.12 · Draw 3.20 · Yacoub El Mansour 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Olympique Safi 42.0% · Draw 27.8% · Yacoub El Mansour 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Olympique Safi 2.12 · Draw 3.20 · Yacoub El Mansour 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Olympique Safi 42.0% · Draw 27.8% · Yacoub El Mansour 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Yacoub El Mansour win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1616668

Closing Odds 2.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yacoub El Mansour win · Olympique Safi 0–1 Yacoub El Mansour
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Botola Pro
  • Fixture: Olympique Safi vs Yacoub El Mansour
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Olympique Safi 1.12 — Yacoub El Mansour 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.25)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola Pro Botola Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maghreb Fès 30 16 11 3 59
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 16 9 5 57
3 Raja Casablanca 30 16 8 6 56
4 FAR Rabat 30 13 16 1 55
5 Wydad AC 30 13 4 13 43
6 Difaa EL Jadida 30 9 13 8 40
7 Ittihad Tanger 30 9 12 9 39
8 FUS Rabat 30 9 10 11 37
9 Kawkab Marrakech 30 8 12 10 36
10 CODM Meknès 30 9 9 12 36
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 8 9 13 33
12 Hassania Agadir 30 8 9 13 33
13 UTS Rabat 30 6 13 11 31
14 Yacoub El Mansour 30 7 9 14 30
15 Olympique Dcheïra 30 7 9 14 30
16 Olympique Safi 30 3 13 14 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FAR Rabat 30 45 22 +23 55
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 44 27 +17 57
3 Maghreb Fès 30 40 17 +23 59
4 Raja Casablanca 30 39 19 +20 56
5 Wydad AC 30 39 33 +6 43
6 Yacoub El Mansour 30 34 44 -10 30
7 UTS Rabat 30 32 40 -8 31
8 FUS Rabat 30 31 36 -5 37
9 Difaa EL Jadida 30 30 34 -4 40
10 Olympique Dcheïra 30 29 40 -11 30
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 28 37 -9 33
12 Kawkab Marrakech 30 27 26 +1 36
13 Ittihad Tanger 30 27 31 -4 39
14 Hassania Agadir 30 27 39 -12 33
15 CODM Meknès 30 24 33 -9 36
16 Olympique Safi 30 24 42 -18 22
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