Para Hills Knights show strong steam with sharp repricing and a significant closing edge of 22.85 percentage points. Despite high volatility, the model probability of 32.85% is much higher than the market's 10%. Main risk: High volatility and potential overreaction to market moves.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
10.00
2026-07-16
패스
Ranked 61/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 45.25). Main risk: N/A.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ has strong steam and sharp repricing, with a closing edge of 32.76 percentage points. The model probability of 63.53% far exceeds the market's 30.77%. Main risk: Elo disadvantage and potential overestimation of home advantage.
검증 전에 철회됨
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✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.25
2026-07-17
후보 선택
@ 3.25
2026-07-17
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 3.25
2026-07-18
패스
Ranked 12/128 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.02). Main risk: N/A.
Ponte Preta has a massive closing edge of 39.69 percentage points and strong drift signals. The model probability of 58.74% is significantly higher than the market's 19.05%. Main risk: Elo disadvantage and reliance on drift signals.
검증 전에 철회됨
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.25
2026-07-15
패스
Ranked 10/96 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.5). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-16
패스
Ranked 13/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.88). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-17
후보 선택
@ 5.25
2026-07-17
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 5.25
2026-07-18
패스
Ranked 46/128 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.32). Main risk: N/A.
Para Hills Knights show strong steam with significant odds movement from 29.0 to 10.0, indicating sharp market interest. The closing edge is highly favorable at 22.85%, and the league quality is high. Main risk: High volatility and limited historical pattern similarity.
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
10.00
2026-07-16
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=15, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=33.0h, hist_n=195, hist_clv_rate=5%)
Hwacheon KSPO W has strong drift momentum with a favorable closing edge of 21.13%. The odds movement suggests sharp market interest, and the model probability is significantly higher than market probability. Main risk: Negative elo and xG differences.
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후보 선택 @
4.50
2026-07-16
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=32.5h, hist_n=231, hist_clv_rate=4%)
Bayswater City exhibits strong drift momentum with odds moving from 6.0 to 10.0 and a closing edge of 24.24%. The model probability is substantially higher than market probability. Main risk: Elo and xG disadvantages against Sydney.
검증 전에 철회됨
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후보 선택 @
10.00
2026-07-17
후보 선택
@ 10.00
2026-07-17
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 10.00
2026-07-18
패스
Ranked 29/81 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.9). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-19
패스
Ranked 21/37 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.9). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-20
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=56, breadth=67%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=32.7h, hist_n=224, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-21
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=62, breadth=78%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=8.6h, hist_n=434, hist_clv_rate=1%)
FC Nordsjaelland shows sharp steam, but the closing edge is modest at 5.75%. Elo and xG differences are negligible, and historical pattern similarity is low. Main risk: Overreaction to market steam in a friendly match.
Qingdao Jonoon's odds drift upward significantly, suggesting market skepticism despite strong drift signals. Closing edge is negative at -4.66%, and the model probability is lower than market probability. Main risk: Potential undervaluation of Qingdao Jonoon's chances.
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후보 선택 @
8.00
2026-07-14
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=82.3h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-15
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=58.3h, hist_n=237, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-16
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=56, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=34.1h, hist_n=195, hist_clv_rate=5%)
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a slight negative move (-7.5%) in odds for the draw. While the historical CLV is slightly positive (52%) and the edge is within acceptable limits (2.6pp), the sharp-led market state suggests potential overreaction. Main risk: The edge is small, and the sharp-led signal could still indicate value.
The historical pattern shows a positive CLV rate (52%) with decent pattern similarity (57.5%). The market has drifted upward, creating a 4.26pp edge. The low volatility and high Elo difference suggest a stable environment for this bet. Main risk: The league quality is lower (B bucket), which could introduce unpredictability.
머니 시그널
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기53
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+41.2%
커버리지 등급Low
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후보 선택 @
4.05
2026-07-17
후보 선택
@ 4.05
3Annecy vs FC Sion4-0
✗ 부정확
Friendlies Clubs
2026-07-17
페이드Draw
4.33
—
—
60
🔥
▾
참가
82일 전
4.33
이유
Despite a 6.52pp edge and positive historical CLV (52%), the sharp-led market state and slight negative move (-3.8%) in odds suggest potential overreaction. The pattern similarity is moderate (53%), and the Elo difference is significantly negative (-67.8), adding risk. Main risk: The edge is relatively high, which could still indicate value.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
참가
82일 전
2.55
이유
The market has drifted against Brinje-Grosuplje, with a significant drop in implied probability and a negative closing edge. The model probability is also lower than the market's, suggesting overpricing on the away side. Main risk: Radomlje's form and home advantage may not justify the drift.
검증 전에 철회됨
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후보 선택 @
2.55
2026-07-16
패스
Ranked 8/8 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 42.68). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-17
후보 선택
@ 2.55
2026-07-17
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.55
2026-07-18
패스
Ranked 4/11 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 69.57). Main risk: N/A.
2Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon5-1
✓ 정확
Super League
2026-07-17
페이드Valuation disagreementHenan Jianye Win
8.00
—
—
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
82일 전
8.00
이유
Qingdao Jonoon has seen a massive drift in odds, with market probability significantly higher than the model's. The sharp move suggests overreaction to early steam. Main risk: Qingdao's poor historical performance and Henan Jianye's stronger metrics.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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후보 선택 @
8.00
2026-07-14
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=82.3h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-15
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=58.3h, hist_n=237, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-16
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=56, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=34.1h, hist_n=195, hist_clv_rate=5%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
참가
82일 전
5.25
이유
The draw option has drifted significantly, with market probability far exceeding the model's estimate. This suggests an overvalued position on the draw. Main risk: MLS matches can be unpredictable, and draws are not uncommon in tight fixtures.
🔥 날카로운 머니 시그널
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후보 선택 @
5.25
2026-07-16
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; odds move must be ≥8%; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=38, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=25.0h, hist_n=231, hist_clv_rate=4%)