Manta FC has a strong model probability of 69.81% compared to the market probability of 40.98%, indicating significant value. The sharp-led signal and positive closing edge of 28.83% further support this bet. Main risk: The steam score is moderate, suggesting limited market momentum.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.44
2026-07-13
후보 선택
@ 2.44
2026-07-13
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.44
2026-07-14
패스
Ranked 25/99 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 72.42). Main risk: N/A.
2Vestri vs QarabagUEFA Europa League
2026-07-13
페이드Qarabag Win
15.00
—
—
78
⚠️
▾
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
86일 전
15.00
이유
Qarabag's odds have drifted significantly from 11.0 to 15.0, and the market is repricing heavily against them. The model probability for Vestri (home) is much higher than the market probability, suggesting potential value on the home side. Main risk: Qarabag's higher league quality and experience could still prevail.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
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후보 선택 @
15.00
2026-07-13
후보 선택
@ 15.00
2026-07-13
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 15.00
2026-07-14
후보 선택
@ 19.00
2026-07-14
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 19.00
2026-07-15
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/96, pre-LLM score 95.62). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-16
패스
Ranked 7/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.3). Main risk: N/A.
3Larne vs Tre FioriUEFA Champions League
2026-07-13
베팅Tre Fiori Win
11.00
—
—
70
⚡
▾
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
86일 전
11.00
이유
Tre Fiori shows a strong closing edge of 29.88% and a model probability of 38.97% compared to the market's 9.09%. The sharp-led signal and market steam indicate potential value. Main risk: Significant elo and xG disadvantage for Tre Fiori.
검증 전에 철회됨
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
11.00
2026-07-12
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=65.8h, hist_n=245, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-13
후보 선택
@ 11.00
2026-07-13
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 11.00
2026-07-14
패스
Ranked 11/99 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 81.84). Main risk: N/A.
The market is repricing the draw with a significant drift, and the historical CLV rate for similar patterns is only slightly positive at 52%. The closing edge of 6.27pp is within acceptable bounds, but the low volatility and market drift signal suggest overreaction. Main risk: The draw's model probability is higher than the market's, which could indicate value if the drift stabilizes.
머니 시그널
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기58
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+36.4%
커버리지 등급Low
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.28
2026-07-12
패스
Ranked 6/12 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 63.8). Main risk: N/A.
1Atert Bissen vs KI KlaksvikUEFA Champions League
2026-07-13
페이드Valuation disagreementAtert Bissen Win
2.20
—
—
75
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
86일 전
2.20
이유
The market has significantly drifted against KI Klaksvik, with a strong steam score of 86 and a notable move percentage of 18.9%. However, the model probability for KI Klaksvik (34.24%) is well below the market probability (45.45%), indicating an overestimation by the market. Main risk: KI Klaksvik's superior Elo rating and low volatility could still result in a win.
검증 전에 철회됨
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후보 선택 @
2.20
2026-07-13
후보 선택
@ 2.20
2026-07-13
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.20
2026-07-14
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 78.35). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
86일 전
2.55
이유
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai has seen a significant drift with a steam score of 70 and a move percentage of 33.5%. The model probability (30.14%) is much lower than the market probability (39.22%), suggesting the market is overestimating their chances. Main risk: The xG differential slightly favors Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, which could indicate some underlying strength.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
86일 전
6.00
이유
Qingdao Jonoon has an extremely high steam score of 95 and a move percentage of 26.3%, but the model probability (11.07%) is significantly lower than the market probability (16.67%), showing an overreaction. Main risk: Qingdao Jonoon's xG differential of 1.82 suggests they could still pose a threat despite the market drift.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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후보 선택 @
6.00
2026-07-07
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=105.8h, hist_n=255, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-08
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=58, breadth=64%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=81.8h, hist_n=226, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
패스
Ranked 6/12 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.96). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-11
후보 선택
@ 6.50
2026-07-11
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 6.50
2026-07-12
패스
Ranked 4/7 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.93). Main risk: N/A.
