Curaçao shows a strong closing edge of 35.42 percentage points, with a model probability of 41.3% against a market probability of just 5.88%. The sharp repricing and low volatility make this an attractive high-value opportunity. Main risk: Curaçao's elo disadvantage and potential underperformance against Ivory Coast.
검증 전에 철회됨
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
17.00
2026-06-18
패스
Ranked 40/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
패스
Ranked 63/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 54.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
패스
Ranked 11/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
후보 선택
@ 17.00
2026-06-22
업데이트
@ 17.00
2026-06-22
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 17.00
2026-06-23
패스
Ranked 9/59 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-24
패스
Ranked 9/73 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-25
패스
Ranked 12/89 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.2). Main risk: N/A.
South Africa's model probability of 41.84% significantly outpaces the market probability of 17.39%, yielding a closing edge of 24.45 percentage points. The sharp repricing and low volatility further support this bet. Main risk: South Korea's higher elo rating and potential to dominate the match.
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후보 선택 @
5.75
2026-06-18
패스
Ranked 41/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
패스
Ranked 64/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 54.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
패스
Ranked 12/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
패스
Ranked 12/113 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-22
후보 선택
@ 5.75
2026-06-22
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 5.75
2026-06-23
패스
Ranked 11/59 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-24
패스
Ranked 11/73 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-25
패스
Ranked 8/89 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
The market has sharply repriced Guarani Campinas, but the model probability (33.77%) is significantly below the market probability (40.82%), indicating overreaction to steam. Confiança's home odds are inflated, making them a fade candidate. Main risk: Confiança's home advantage and Guarani's marginal xG edge.
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후보 선택 @
2.45
2026-06-20
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=70, breadth=56%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=69.4h)
2026-06-21
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=42, breadth=60%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=45.5h)
2026-06-22
후보 선택
@ 2.45
2Al Kuwait vs Al Arabi3-2
✗ 부정확
Premier League
2026-06-22
페이드Valuation disagreementAl Arabi Win
2.25
—
—
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
111일 전
2.25
이유
Al Kuwait's odds have shortened due to steam, but the model probability (40.28%) is below the market probability (44.44%), suggesting an overreaction. Al Arabi's away odds are now undervalued, making them a fade candidate. Main risk: Al Kuwait's slight xG advantage and home-field factor.
