Halmstad shows significant model value with a closing edge of 40.02 and strong drift signals. Despite a low steam score, the model probability of 58.2% far exceeds the market probability of 18.18%. Main risk: Elo difference favors BK Hacken, indicating potential underestimation of their strength.
검증 전에 철회됨
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.50
2026-07-15
후보 선택
@ 5.50
2026-07-15
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 5.50
2026-07-16
패스
Ranked 19/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-17
패스
Ranked 23/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-18
패스
Ranked 51/128 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.83). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-19
패스
Ranked 20/116 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.83). Main risk: N/A.
Wuhan Three Towns has a strong model probability of 79.12% compared to the market probability of 47.62%, supported by a closing edge of 31.5. The xG difference of 2.07 further supports their chances. Main risk: Elo difference slightly favors Sichuan Jiuniu, suggesting potential overvaluation of Wuhan.
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후보 선택 @
2.10
2026-07-13
패스
Ranked 6/51 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-14
패스
Ranked 15/99 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-15
후보 선택
@ 2.10
2026-07-15
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.10
2026-07-17
패스
Ranked 24/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.6). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-18
패스
Ranked 29/128 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.22). Main risk: N/A.
St Joseph S Fc shows strong steam signals and sharp repricing, with a closing edge of 15.65. However, their Elo and xG differences are negative, indicating a weaker team overall. Main risk: Market may be overreacting to recent steam movements favoring the home side.
The market is drifting away from the draw, indicating weak support. Historical CLV is only marginally positive at 52%, and the closing edge is minimal at 1.76pp. Main risk: The drift could reverse if late money supports the draw.
머니 시그널
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기54
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+43.9%
커버리지 등급Low
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후보 선택 @
3.60
2026-07-14
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=70, breadth=100%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=37.3h, hist_n=493, hist_clv_rate=2%)
The draw shows a sharp-led repricing with a positive closing edge of 3.31pp and historical CLV at 52%. The market probability aligns closely with the model, suggesting a fair value bet. Main risk: The sharp-led movement could be overreacting to small market signals.
머니 시그널
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기54
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+43.9%
커버리지 등급Low
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후보 선택 @
3.80
2026-07-13
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=52, breadth=89%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=69.8h, hist_n=208, hist_clv_rate=5%)
1Atert Bissen vs KI Klaksvik1-2
✓ 정확
UEFA Champions League
2026-07-15
페이드Valuation disagreementKI Klaksvik Win
2.25
—
—
75
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
88일 전
2.25
이유
KI Klaksvik has seen a significant drift in odds from 1.85 to 2.25, indicating a loss of market confidence. The model probability (34.24%) is significantly lower than the market probability (44.44%), resulting in a negative edge of -10.2 percentage points. Despite a strong drift signal and a notable Elo advantage, the market's repricing suggests skepticism about their chances. Main risk: KI Klaksvik's Elo advantage could still translate into a win despite the market drift.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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후보 선택 @
2.25
2026-07-13
후보 선택
@ 2.20
2026-07-13
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.20
2026-07-14
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 78.35). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
참가
88일 전
2.72
이유
Houston Dash W has seen strong steam with odds shortening from 3.58 to 2.72, but the model probability (31.03%) is below the market probability (36.76%), resulting in a negative edge of -5.73 percentage points. The sharp repricing and low league quality further suggest an overreaction. Main risk: Houston Dash W's slight Elo and xG advantages could still make them competitive.
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후보 선택 @
2.72
2026-07-15
후보 선택
@ 2.72
2026-07-15
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.72
2026-07-16
패스
Ranked 4/8 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 74.28). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-17
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 73.68). Main risk: N/A.
