Curaçao presents a significant model edge with a closing_edge_pp of 31.3 and a model probability of 34.24% compared to the market's 2.94%. The sharp-led signal and sharp repricing market state indicate potential undervaluation. Main risk: Extremely low market probability suggests a high likelihood of the bet losing, but the value justifies the risk.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
61.00
2026-06-07
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=205.5h)
2026-06-09
업데이트
@ 61.00
2026-06-09
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 61.00
2026-06-10
후보 선택
@ 34.00(후보 선택 61.00)
2026-06-10
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 34.00(후보 선택 61.00)
2026-06-11
패스
Ranked 6/22 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 69.4). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-12
후보 선택
@ 29.00
2026-06-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 29.00
2026-06-13
패스
Ranked 15/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 84.08). Main risk: N/A.
Cape Verde Islands have a closing_edge_pp of 30.91 and a model probability of 34.24%, far exceeding the market's 3.33%. The model-led market state supports this value play. Main risk: The odds reflect a very low implied probability, indicating a high chance of losing despite the edge.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
30.00
2026-06-09
패스
Ranked 4/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 49.8). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-10
후보 선택
@ 30.00
2026-06-10
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 30.00
2026-06-11
후보 선택
@ 26.00
2026-06-11
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 26.00
2026-06-12
패스
Ranked 10/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.95). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-13
패스
Ranked 13/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
패스
Ranked 9/117 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-15
패스
Ranked 6/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 81.23). Main risk: N/A.
3USA vs ParaguayWorld Cup
2026-06-10
페이드USA Win
4.10
—
—
65
⚠️
▾
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
123일 전
4.10
이유
USA's market probability of 24.39% is only marginally lower than the model's 34.24%, and the closing_edge_pp is just 9.85. This suggests limited value, and the model edge is not strong enough to justify a bet. Main risk: The model could be underestimating the USA's chances slightly, but the fade aligns with the lack of significant edge.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.10
2026-06-06
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥75. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=168.0h)
2026-06-07
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=165.5h)
2026-06-08
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=28, breadth=92%, signal=volatile_market, kickoff_in=120.0h)
2026-06-09
패스
Ranked 15/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 35.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-10
후보 선택
@ 4.10
2026-06-10
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.10
2026-06-11
패스
Ranked 7/22 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 68.54). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-12
패스
Ranked 9/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 68.54). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-13
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=56, breadth=93%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=-0.0h)
