TPV has a significant closing edge of 20.91% and strong steam with a high steam score of 96. The model probability of 34.24% is well above the market probability of 13.33%. Main risk: The odds drift suggests market skepticism, and TPV's low implied probability reflects their underdog status.
Amazonas shows strong steam with a steam score of 99 and a closing edge of 10.43%. The model probability of 31.48% exceeds the market probability of 21.05%. Main risk: Moderate edge and Amazonas' slight underdog status in a low-volatility match.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.75
2026-06-26
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=118.3h)
2026-06-29
후보 선택
@ 4.75
2026-06-29
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.75
2026-06-30
패스
Ranked 11/44 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.51). Main risk: N/A.
—
마감
@ 4.54
3Odense vs Kolding IF2-1
✗ 부정확
Friendlies Clubs
2026-06-29
베팅Kolding IF Win
4.10
3.90
+1.2pp
68
🔥
▾
참가
98일 전
4.10
→
예상 마감
3.90
예상 CLV
+1.2pp
이유
Kolding IF has a strong model edge with a closing edge of 14.1% and a model probability of 38.49%, significantly higher than the market probability of 24.39%. Main risk: Limited steam signal and the friendly nature of the match, which can introduce unpredictability.
1Botafogo PB vs Brusque2-0
✗ 부정확
Serie C
2026-06-29
베팅Brusque Win
3.75
3.27
+3.9pp
85
🔥
▾
참가
98일 전
3.75
→
예상 마감
3.27
예상 CLV
+3.9pp
이유
Brusque shows strong steam with a significant odds drift from 2.62 to 3.75, indicating sharp market interest. The model probability is higher than market probability, providing closing edge. Main risk: Brusque's low xG difference and Elo rating suggest limited historical advantage.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.75
2026-06-27
패스
Ranked 76/84 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
패스
Ranked 7/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-28
패스
Ranked 6/40 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.7). Main risk: N/A.
Amazonas has sharp steam and a strong closing edge of 10.43. The model probability significantly exceeds market probability, and Elo/xG differences slightly favor Amazonas. Main risk: Amazonas' odds drift suggests market skepticism despite steam signals.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.75
2026-06-26
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=118.3h)
2026-06-29
후보 선택
@ 4.75
2026-06-29
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.75
2026-06-30
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=50, breadth=91%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=22.3h, hist_n=246, hist_clv_rate=4%)
TPV exhibits sharp steam with a massive closing edge of 20.91. The model probability is much higher than market probability, and Elo/xG differences are neutral. Main risk: Extremely high odds suggest the market views TPV as a long shot.
Panevėžys shows strong steam and a closing edge of 11.69. The model probability is significantly higher than market probability, and xG difference supports the pick. Main risk: Elo difference slightly favors Suduva Marijampole.
Slovan Bratislava has market steam and a closing edge of 6.6. The model probability exceeds market probability, and xG difference is slightly favorable. Main risk: Elo difference heavily favors FK Crvena Zvezda.
The draw option in IA Akranes vs Fram Reykjavik shows a positive historical CLV rate of 52%, indicating a favorable pattern replay. The closing edge is within the acceptable range at 5.5pp, and the market is trailing the model's probability. Main risk: Low volatility could lead to a decisive result, reducing the likelihood of a draw.
머니 시그널
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기80
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.3%
커버리지 등급Low
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.14
2026-06-29
후보 선택
@ 4.14
—
마감
@ 4.24
2Colombia vs GhanaWorld Cup
2026-06-29
페이드Draw
3.80
4.40
-3.6pp
65
🔥
▾
참가
98일 전
3.80
→
예상 마감
4.40
예상 CLV
-3.6pp
이유
The draw in Colombia vs Ghana has a negative closing edge of -8.12pp, suggesting overreaction by the market. Historical CLV is neutral, and the sharp-led market state indicates potential inefficiency. Main risk: Market repricing could still align with sharp bettors' insights, making the fade risky.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기80
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.3%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.80
2026-06-29
후보 선택
@ 3.80
2026-06-29
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 3.80
2026-06-30
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=70, breadth=92%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=96.3h, hist_n=618, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-01
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=99, breadth=100%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=10.0h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-02
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=99, breadth=100%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=9.6h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-03
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=97, breadth=92%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=9.2h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-04
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=97, breadth=92%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=0.2h, hist_n=596, hist_clv_rate=2%)
1Cuiaba vs America MineiroSerie B
2026-06-29
페이드Valuation disagreementCuiaba Win
4.72
1.86
+32.6pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
98일 전
4.72
→
예상 마감
1.86
예상 CLV
+32.6pp
이유
America Mineiro's odds have lengthened significantly, showing strong steam on Cuiaba. However, the model probability for America Mineiro (10.39%) is much lower than the market's implied probability (21.19%), and the closing edge is negative (-10.8). This indicates a potential overreaction to the steam on Cuiaba. Main risk: The minimal Elo and xG differences suggest this could still be a close match.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.72
2026-06-29
후보 선택
@ 4.72
2026-06-29
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.72
2026-06-30
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/7, pre-LLM score 87.8). Main risk: N/A.
—
마감
@ 1.86
2Germany vs Paraguay1-1
✗ 부정확
World Cup
2026-06-29
페이드Valuation disagreementGermany Win
10.00
1.34
+64.6pp
60
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
98일 전
10.00
→
예상 마감
1.34
예상 CLV
+64.6pp
이유
Austria's odds have shortened significantly, indicating market steam on the away side. However, the model probability (5.15%) is lower than the market's implied probability (7.69%), and the closing edge is negative (-2.54). The market may have overreacted to Austria's steam. Main risk: Spain's significant xG and Elo advantages make them heavy favorites.
