Ægir has strong steam and sharp repricing signals, with significant closing edge (15.19) and a model probability far exceeding market probability (34.24% vs 19.05%). The odds movement suggests value despite low league quality. Main risk: Elo and xG differences are marginally against Ægir.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.25
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 5.25
2026-07-02
업데이트
@ 5.25
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 5.25
2026-07-03
패스
Ranked 7/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
Glenorchy Knights exhibit strong steam (99) and sharp repricing with a closing edge of 8.63. Elo and xG differences heavily favor the home side, and the model probability (44.34%) exceeds market probability (35.71%). Main risk: Odds movement suggests some market skepticism.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.80
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 2.80
2026-07-02
업데이트
@ 2.80
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.80
2026-07-03
패스
Ranked 16/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.66). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-04
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=74, breadth=67%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=5.5h, hist_n=596, hist_clv_rate=2%)
Glenorchy Knights show strong steam with a sharp market repricing and significant closing edge (8.63%). The model probability is higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Clarence Zebras could outperform expectations despite low volatility.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.80
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 2.80
2026-07-02
업데이트
@ 2.80
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.80
2026-07-03
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/54, pre-LLM score 107.3). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 38/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.93). Main risk: N/A.
Ægir has strong steam and a sharp repricing with a significant closing edge (15.19%). The model probability is notably higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: Fylkir's slight edge in xG could impact the outcome.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.25
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 5.25
2026-07-02
업데이트
@ 5.25
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 5.25
2026-07-03
패스
Ranked 12/54 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 101.49). Main risk: N/A.
Deutschlandsberger SC shows strong steam and a sharp repricing with a closing edge of 9.32%. The model probability is higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: SV Kapfenberg's Elo is slightly better, which could impact the result.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.80
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 3.80
2026-07-02
업데이트
@ 3.80
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 3.80
2026-07-03
패스
Deutschlandsberger SC has moderate steam and closing edge but lacks compelling evidence for strong value. Main risk: Limited odds movement and low historical pattern similarity.
Sunshine Georgies has strong steam with a significant move percentage (50.1%) and closing edge (16.1%). The model probability is much higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Oakleigh Cannons have an Elo advantage and could dominate.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
6.50
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 6.50
2026-07-02
업데이트
@ 6.50
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 6.50
2026-07-03
패스
Ranked 27/54 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 88.22). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 13/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 98.93). Main risk: N/A.
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a slight negative move in odds (-5.6%), indicating potential overreaction to sharp action. The historical CLV is only marginally positive (52%), and the closing edge is negligible (0.1pp). Main risk: The match is in a low-volatility setting, which could favor a draw.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기76
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.9%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.40
2026-07-01
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 1/8, pre-LLM score 65.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
후보 선택
@ 3.40
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 3.40
2026-07-03
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 1/10, pre-LLM score 65.7). Main risk: N/A.
The odds have shortened significantly (-11.1% move), suggesting potential overreaction to sharp money. The closing edge is negative (-0.17pp), and the model probability (12.33%) aligns closely with the market probability (12.5%). Main risk: The high odds for a draw could still offer value if the market is mispricing the probability.
머니 시그널
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기76
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.9%
커버리지 등급Low
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
8.00
2026-06-29
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=78, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=116.8h, hist_n=640, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-06-30
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=94, breadth=83%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=92.8h, hist_n=618, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-01
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/8, pre-LLM score 65.7). Main risk: N/A.
The market has moved against the draw (+5.9% move), and the closing edge is significantly negative (-14.1pp). The model probability (13.68%) is much lower than the market probability (27.78%), indicating a potential overvaluation of the draw. Main risk: The sharp-led signal could indicate insider knowledge favoring the draw.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기76
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.9%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.60
2026-07-01
패스
Ranked 8/8 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 61.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
후보 선택
@ 3.60
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 3.60
2026-07-03
패스
Ranked 10/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 61.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 9/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 61.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=47, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=18.8h, hist_n=236, hist_clv_rate=4%)
1Botafogo SP vs AvaiSerie B
2026-07-02
페이드Valuation disagreementBotafogo SP Win
4.75
—
—
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
97일 전
4.75
이유
The market has heavily steamed Avai, pushing their odds to 4.75, but the model probability for Avai is significantly lower than the market's at 12.37% versus 21.05%. This suggests an overreaction to the steam. Main risk: Botafogo SP's home advantage and better xG metrics could justify their favoritism.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.75
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 4.75
2026-07-02
업데이트
@ 4.75
2026-07-02
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 4.75
2026-07-03
후보 선택
@ 4.75
2026-07-03
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.75
2026-07-04
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/10, pre-LLM score 79.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
후보 선택
@ 4.75
2026-07-05
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.75
2026-07-06
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=68, breadth=38%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=20.8h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
97일 전
5.00
이유
Mjallby AIF's odds have drifted to 5.0, and the model probability (16.5%) is below the market's (20.0%), indicating potential value on the home side. However, Sirius's xG advantage and Mjallby's poor Elo rating suggest caution. Main risk: Sirius's form may not justify their favoritism.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.00
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 5.00
2026-07-02
업데이트
@ 5.00
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 5.00
2026-07-03
패스
Ranked 6/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.53). Main risk: N/A.
3Tallinna Kalev vs MaarduEsiliiga A
2026-07-02
페이드Valuation disagreementMaardu Win
2.25
—
—
60
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
97일 전
2.25
이유
Tallinna Kalev has seen strong steam, but the model probability (36.11%) is below the market's (44.44%), indicating potential overpricing. Elo and xG differences are minimal, suggesting no clear edge. Main risk: Maardu's poor Elo rating may still make them vulnerable.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.25
2026-07-01
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/6, pre-LLM score 69.41). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
후보 선택
@ 2.25
2026-07-02
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.25
2026-07-03
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=66, breadth=82%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=1.2h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
