Forfar Athletic shows a strong closing edge of 22.01 percentage points and a significant model probability of 33.77% compared to the market's 11.76%. The steam score is high at 92, indicating strong market activity. The match has low volatility, which reduces uncertainty. Main risk: The slight Elo disadvantage (-17.4) and the drift in odds suggest some market skepticism about Forfar's chances.
Stirling Albion has an exceptional closing edge of 23.34 percentage points and a model probability of 31.03% compared to the market's 7.69%. The steam score of 85 and low volatility support the bet. Main risk: The significant Elo disadvantage (-101.3) could indicate a mismatch in team quality.
Linfield has the highest closing edge of 24.08 percentage points and a strong model probability of 39.46% compared to the market's 15.38%. The steam score of 84 and high market activity further validate the bet. Main risk: The high volatility and significant Elo disadvantage (190.7) could lead to unpredictable outcomes.
1Kaspiy vs Ordabasy3-2
✗ 부정확
Premier League
2026-07-11
베팅Draw
4.00
—
—
68
🔥
▾
참가
92일 전
4.00
이유
The closing edge of 4.63pp is within acceptable limits for a pattern replay, supported by a historical CLV positive rate of 52%. The market state shows sharp-led repricing, and the odds movement aligns with the model's probability. Main risk: Moderate pattern similarity (56.7%) could indicate less robust historical alignment.
머니 시그널
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기63
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+28.1%
커버리지 등급Low
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.00
2026-07-11
후보 선택
@ 4.00
2CRB vs GoiasSerie B
2026-07-11
페이드Draw
3.50
—
—
80
🔥
▾
참가
92일 전
3.50
이유
The closing edge is significantly negative at -8.17pp, indicating a strong overreaction in the market. The model probability is much lower than the market probability, and the historical pattern similarity is weak at 45%. Main risk: Market drift could reverse, but the negative edge makes this unlikely.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기63
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+28.1%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.50
2026-07-09
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=56, breadth=54%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=92.8h, hist_n=225, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=68, breadth=92%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=68.8h, hist_n=537, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-11
후보 선택
@ 3.50
2026-07-11
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 3.50
2026-07-12
패스
Ranked 12/12 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 61.2). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
92일 전
3.25
이유
The market has heavily drifted against Qingdao Youth Island, with a significant move from 2.62 to 3.25 and a sharp drop in model probability (15.68% vs. 30.77% market). The strong drift signal and negative closing edge suggest the market is overreacting to Qingdao's chances. Main risk: Qingdao's form may still outperform the model's low probability.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.25
2026-07-09
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=57, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=58.4h, hist_n=225, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=58, breadth=62%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=34.4h, hist_n=225, hist_clv_rate=4%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
92일 전
6.50
이유
Qingdao Jonoon's odds have drifted from 4.75 to 6.5, with a strong drift signal and a negative closing edge. The model probability (11.07%) is lower than the market's 15.38%, suggesting the market is overpricing Qingdao Jonoon's chances. Main risk: Qingdao Jonoon's xG differential of 1.82 could still pose a threat.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
6.50
2026-07-07
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=105.8h, hist_n=255, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-08
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=58, breadth=64%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=81.8h, hist_n=226, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
패스
Ranked 6/12 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.96). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-11
후보 선택
@ 6.50
2026-07-11
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 6.50
2026-07-12
패스
Ranked 4/7 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.93). Main risk: N/A.
