Tunisia has an enormous model-market probability gap (41.39% vs. 4.35%) and the highest closing edge (37.04pp) in the dataset. Strong steam and sharp repricing support this bet. Main risk: Netherlands' significant Elo advantage.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
11.00
2026-06-18
패스
Ranked 39/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
패스
Ranked 62/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 54.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
패스
Ranked 8/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
후보 선택
@ 11.00
2026-06-21
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 11.00
2026-06-22
후보 선택
@ 23.00(후보 선택 11.00)
2026-06-23
업데이트
@ 23.00(후보 선택 11.00)
2026-06-23
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 23.00(후보 선택 11.00)
2026-06-24
패스
Ranked 8/73 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-25
후보 선택
@ 26.00
2New Zealand vs Belgium1-5
✗ 부정확
World Cup
2026-06-23
베팅New Zealand Win
13.00
—
—
85
🔥
▾
참가
110일 전
13.00
이유
New Zealand shows a massive model-market probability gap (41.39% vs. 7.69%) and a strong closing edge of 33.7pp. The market is sharply repricing with strong steam, suggesting undervaluation. Main risk: Belgium's superior quality and historical strength.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
13.00
2026-06-20
패스
Ranked 82/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
패스
Ranked 59/113 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-22
패스
Ranked 6/65 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 97.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-23
후보 선택
@ 13.00
2026-06-23
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 13.00
2026-06-24
후보 선택
@ 11.00(후보 선택 13.00)
2026-06-24
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 11.00(후보 선택 13.00)
2026-06-25
후보 선택
@ 15.00(후보 선택 13.00)
2026-06-26
업데이트
@ 15.00(후보 선택 13.00)
2026-06-27
업데이트
@ 15.00(후보 선택 13.00)
2026-06-27
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 15.00(후보 선택 13.00)
3Scotland vs Brazil0-3
✗ 부정확
World Cup
2026-06-23
베팅Scotland Win
8.00
—
—
78
🔥
▾
참가
110일 전
8.00
이유
Scotland's model probability (41.93%) far exceeds the market's (12.5%), with a strong closing edge of 29.43pp. Steam and sharp repricing indicate value. Main risk: Brazil's overwhelming Elo and historical dominance.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
8.00
2026-06-17
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=65, breadth=75%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=189.0h)
2026-06-18
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=65, breadth=75%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=165.0h)
2026-06-19
패스
Ranked 22/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.35). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
패스
Ranked 48/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 70.82). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
패스
Ranked 6/113 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 97.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-22
패스
Ranked 7/65 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 97.02). Main risk: N/A.
McKinney Chupacabras have seen significant market steam, but the model probability (27.07%) is far below the market's (41.67%), indicating an overheated market. The closing edge is deeply negative (-14.6), suggesting poor value. Main risk: Denton Diablos' form or injuries could be underestimated.
⚡ 탄탄한 머니 시그널
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
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✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.40
2026-06-22
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=23.5h)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
참가
110일 전
2.41
이유
IBV Vestmannaeyjar's odds have shortened significantly, but the model probability (33.77%) is still below the market's (41.49%). The negative closing edge (-7.72) implies the steam may not be justified. Main risk: FH hafnarfjordur's inconsistency could make the away side more appealing than the model suggests.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.41
2026-06-23
후보 선택
@ 2.41
2026-06-23
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.41
2026-06-24
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=57, breadth=100%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=111.8h)
2026-06-27
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=59, breadth=54%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=39.8h)
2026-06-27
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=59, breadth=54%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=32.1h, hist_n=264, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-06-28
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=59, breadth=54%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=15.8h, hist_n=263, hist_clv_rate=4%)
3Algeria vs AustriaWorld Cup
2026-06-23
페이드ContrarianDraw
2.75
—
—
65
⚡
▾
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
110일 전
2.75
이유
The draw has been heavily steamed, but the model probability (30.07%) is significantly below the market's (36.36%). The closing edge is negative (-6.29), indicating poor value. Main risk: A balanced match could result in a draw despite the market overreaction.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.75
2026-06-21
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=51, breadth=85%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=169.0h)
2026-06-22
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=66, breadth=85%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=145.0h)
2026-06-23
후보 선택
@ 2.75
2026-06-23
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 2.75
2026-06-24
후보 선택
@ 2.35(후보 선택 2.75)
2026-06-25
업데이트
@ 2.38(후보 선택 2.75)
2026-06-25
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 2.38(후보 선택 2.75)
2026-06-26
후보 선택
@ 2.30(후보 선택 2.75)
2026-06-26
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 2.30(후보 선택 2.75)
2026-06-27
후보 선택
@ 2.20(후보 선택 2.75)
2026-06-27
업데이트
@ 2.20(후보 선택 2.75)
2026-06-27
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.20(후보 선택 2.75)
2026-06-28
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=97, breadth=92%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=0.8h, hist_n=661, hist_clv_rate=2%)
