Jordan shows a massive positive closing edge of 34.04 percentage points and strong steam signals, indicating significant market interest despite high volatility. The model probability of 39.3% far exceeds the market's 5.26%, suggesting value. Main risk: Argentina's superior Elo rating and potential market overreaction to steam.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
15.00
2026-06-21
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=62, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=169.0h)
2026-06-22
패스
Ranked 45/65 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 46.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-23
패스
Ranked 28/59 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.95). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-24
패스
Ranked 16/73 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-25
패스
Ranked 10/89 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-26
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/129, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
후보 선택
@ 15.00
2026-06-27
패스
Ranked 4/151 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 97.02). Main risk: N/A.
KPV-j has a strong closing edge of 20.41 percentage points and a model probability of 39.46%, significantly higher than the market's 19.05%. The steam score of 96 supports the bet, and the low volatility reduces risk. Main risk: Moderate Elo advantage for PKKU could challenge the model's edge.
Norrby IF has a strong closing edge of 30.77 percentage points and a model probability of 48.16%, far exceeding the market's 17.39%. The sharp-led signal and pattern similarity of 45% further validate the value. Main risk: Elo and xG disadvantages could limit upside.
머니 시그널
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.75
2026-06-23
패스
Ranked 24/59 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.9). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
패스
Ranked 32/151 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 74.62). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
패스
Ranked 45/115 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 74.62). Main risk: N/A.
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a slight negative closing edge (-1.13pp), suggesting overreaction to sharp-led signals. Historical CLV is marginally positive (52%), but the pattern similarity is moderate (60%). Main risk: The low volatility and sharp-led signals could still align with a draw outcome.
The sharp-led market repricing and significant odds drop (-12.3%) suggest an overreaction. Despite a strong model edge (7.99pp) and historical CLV (52%), the pattern similarity is low (50%), reducing confidence in the replayability of this scenario. Main risk: Sharp-led signals may still align with the draw outcome.
머니 시그널
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기83
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+29.5%
커버리지 등급Low
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.64
2026-06-25
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥15; historical ROI must be >0%; edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis). (Current: steam=57, breadth=50%, signal=market_fading, kickoff_in=83.8h)
2026-06-26
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥15; historical ROI must be >0%; edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis). (Current: steam=57, breadth=50%, signal=market_fading, kickoff_in=62.3h)
Carolina Core has seen strong steam with odds drifting from 2.0 to 2.38, but the model probability (31.94%) is below the market's 42.02%. The Elo difference of -92.3 and slightly negative xG differential suggest Carolina Core is overvalued. Main risk: Potential underestimation of Carolina Core's home advantage.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
104일 전
2.35
이유
Universidad de Concepcion has been steamed with odds shortening from 2.1 to 2.35, but the model probability (36.11%) is below the market's 42.55%. The Elo difference slightly favors Universidad de Concepcion, but the xG difference is negligible. Main risk: Universidad de Concepcion's form may justify the market move.
⚡ 탄탄한 머니 시그널
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.35
2026-06-27
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=48, breadth=78%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=35.1h, hist_n=319, hist_clv_rate=3%)
