Ulverstone shows exceptional closing edge at 31.8 percentage points and a model probability of 34.24% compared to a market probability of just 2.44%. Despite low league quality, the odds provide significant value. Main risk: The team has a negative xG differential (-0.04), which could limit scoring opportunities.
⚡ 탄탄한 머니 시그널
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후보 선택 @
41.00
2026-07-01
패스
Ranked 61/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 61/91 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
패스
Ranked 21/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.7). Main risk: N/A.
The draw option for Adelaide City vs Para Hills Knights has a massive closing edge of 24.68 percentage points and a model probability of 29.44% versus a market probability of 4.76%. However, the steam signal is weaker, and draws are inherently volatile. Main risk: Draw outcomes are less predictable and often influenced by late-game dynamics.
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후보 선택 @
21.00
2026-07-01
패스
Ranked 57/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 53.3). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 57/91 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 53.3). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=12.7h, hist_n=283, hist_clv_rate=3%)
The market has sharply repriced towards the draw, but the closing edge is negative (-1.74pp), suggesting limited value. Historical CLV is only marginally positive (52%), and the pattern similarity is moderate (60%). Main risk: The market steam could still reflect genuine sharp interest.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기76
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.9%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
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후보 선택 @
3.20
2026-06-30
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=137.3h, hist_n=295, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-01
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=71, breadth=100%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=51.0h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-02
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=71, breadth=100%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=50.6h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-03
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=71, breadth=100%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=50.2h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-04
후보 선택
@ 3.20
2026-07-04
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 3.20
2026-07-05
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=22, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=17.3h, hist_n=236, hist_clv_rate=4%)
Despite sharp-led movement and a high breadth percentage (91.7%), the closing edge is negative (-2.61pp), and the model probability (29.65%) is slightly below market probability (32.26%). Historical CLV is only moderately supportive. Main risk: Potential underestimation of sharp activity.
The market has sharply repriced against Western Sydney Wanderers U23, but the model probability for the home side is significantly lower than the market probability, and the closing edge is deeply negative. This suggests the steam on the home side is overheated. Main risk: The home team could still outperform the model's expectations.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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후보 선택 @
2.20
2026-07-01
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=55, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=13.5h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-02
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=55, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=13.1h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-03
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=55, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=12.7h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
LDU de Quito has seen steam, but the model probability for the away side is much lower than the market's, and the closing edge is highly negative. This indicates the market is overestimating the away team's chances. Main risk: LDU de Quito's xG advantage could materialize into a strong performance.
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후보 선택 @
2.35
2026-07-04
후보 선택
@ 2.35
2026-07-04
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.35
2026-07-05
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=62, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=16.8h, hist_n=588, hist_clv_rate=2%)
Melbourne City II has experienced significant steam, but the model probability is lower than the market's, and the closing edge is negative. The large ELO disadvantage for Melbourne City II further supports fading the home side. Main risk: The away team may still perform well despite the ELO gap.
🔥 날카로운 머니 시그널
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후보 선택 @
2.30
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 2.35
2026-07-01
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.35
2026-07-02
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 75.28). Main risk: N/A.
