Saudi Arabia shows a strong model probability of 36.11% compared to the market probability of 13.33%, yielding a closing edge of 22.78 percentage points. The sharp-led market repricing supports this value. Main risk: Uruguay's higher Elo rating and historical strength in international competitions.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
7.50
2026-06-09
패스
Ranked 11/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 45.6). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-10
패스
Ranked 4/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-11
후보 선택
@ 7.50
2026-06-12
업데이트
@ 7.50
2026-06-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 7.50
2026-06-13
패스
Ranked 21/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 81.97). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
후보 선택
@ 7.50
2026-06-14
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 7.50
2026-06-15
패스
Ranked 27/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 47.54). Main risk: N/A.
Curaçao's odds have shortened significantly from 41.0 to 29.0, indicating strong market steam. The model probability of 34.24% far exceeds the market probability of 3.45%, creating a massive closing edge of 30.79 percentage points. Main risk: Germany's overwhelming quality advantage and Curaçao's limited historical performance at this level.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
29.00
2026-06-07
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=205.5h)
2026-06-09
업데이트
@ 61.00
2026-06-09
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 61.00
2026-06-10
후보 선택
@ 34.00(후보 선택 61.00)
2026-06-10
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 34.00(후보 선택 61.00)
2026-06-11
패스
Ranked 6/22 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 69.4). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-12
후보 선택
@ 29.00
2026-06-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 29.00
2026-06-13
패스
Ranked 15/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 84.08). Main risk: N/A.
Algeria's odds have drifted from 7.0 to 9.0, but the model probability of 34.24% suggests significant value against the market probability of 11.11%. The sharp-led signal further supports this pick. Main risk: Argentina's superior squad depth and form.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
9.00
2026-06-11
패스
Ranked 10/22 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.42). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-12
후보 선택
@ 9.00
2026-06-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 9.00
2026-06-13
패스
Ranked 61/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.96). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
패스
Ranked 50/117 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 65.03). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-15
패스
Ranked 7/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.03). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-16
패스
Ranked 15/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 69.97). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-17
패스
Ranked 41/86 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.93). Main risk: N/A.
South Africa has strong steam indicators with a high breadth percentage and sharp market repricing. Despite limited historical data, the sharp move suggests value in backing the away side. Main risk: South Africa's limited historical performance data and low market probability.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.75
2026-06-12
후보 선택
@ 4.75
2026-06-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.75
2026-06-13
패스
Ranked 26/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.8). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
패스
Ranked 23/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.8). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-15
패스
Ranked 8/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.8). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-16
패스
Ranked 7/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 96.73). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-17
패스
Ranked 17/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.27). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-18
패스
Ranked 21/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.27). Main risk: N/A.
Curaçao's odds have dropped significantly, indicating sharp market activity. However, the massive elo difference against Germany and low market probability make this a contrarian fade. Main risk: The sharp repricing could reflect genuine underdog value.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
29.00
2026-06-07
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=205.5h)
2026-06-08
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=15, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=160.0h)
2026-06-09
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=15, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=136.0h)
2026-06-10
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=58, breadth=36%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=112.0h)
2026-06-11
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=58, breadth=36%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=88.0h)
2026-06-12
후보 선택
@ 29.00
2026-06-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 29.00
2026-06-13
패스
Ranked 32/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 88.64). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
패스
Ranked 32/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 86.16). Main risk: N/A.
3Belgium vs EgyptWorld Cup
2026-06-12
베팅Egypt Win
5.50
—
—
66
⚡
▾
참가
121일 전
5.50
이유
Egypt shows decent steam indicators and a strong breadth percentage. The market repricing suggests potential value despite Belgium's higher elo. Main risk: Belgium's superior historical performance and elo rating.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.50
2026-06-08
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=28, breadth=92%, signal=volatile_market, kickoff_in=186.0h)
2026-06-09
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=28, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=162.0h)
2026-06-10
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=28, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=138.0h)
2026-06-11
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=56, breadth=62%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=114.0h)
2026-06-12
후보 선택
@ 5.50
2026-06-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 5.50
2026-06-13
패스
Ranked 27/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.59). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
패스
Ranked 25/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.69). Main risk: N/A.
