Logan Lightning shows strong steam with a sharp odds move (-18%) and closing edge (7.55%). However, the market probability aligns closely with the model probability, reducing confidence in value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor the away side.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.10
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 4.10
2026-07-01
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.10
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 12/45 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 98.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
패스
Ranked 19/54 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 95.37). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 26/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 88.65). Main risk: N/A.
The match between Kairat Almaty and Okzhetpes shows a strong historical pattern with a positive CLV rate of 52% and a closing edge of 5.21pp. The market is repricing sharply, and the model probability exceeds the market probability significantly. Main risk: The elo and xG differences favor Kairat Almaty, which could reduce the likelihood of a draw.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기76
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.9%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.30
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 4.30
2026-07-01
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.30
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 4/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.4). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
후보 선택
@ 4.30
2026-07-03
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.30
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 5/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.4). Main risk: N/A.
The Gold Coast Knights vs Lions match has a closing edge of 5.67pp and a positive historical CLV rate of 52%. The market is repricing sharply, and the model probability is higher than the market probability. Main risk: The negative elo and xG differences suggest Lions may have a slight edge.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기76
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.9%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.20
2026-06-15
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=17, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=32.5h)
2026-06-16
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=15, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=8.5h)
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 4.20
2026-07-01
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.20
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 6/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
후보 선택
@ 4.20
2026-07-03
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.20
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 6/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
후보 선택
@ 4.20
2026-07-05
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.20
2026-07-06
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=88, breadth=77%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=32.3h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-07
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=67, breadth=77%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=8.3h, hist_n=548, hist_clv_rate=2%)
The Sturt Lions vs Playford City Patriots match shows a closing edge of 5.72pp and a historical CLV rate of 52%. The model leads the market, and the odds are attractive for a draw. Main risk: The low xG and elo differences make the outcome less predictable.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기76
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.9%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.18
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 4.18
2026-07-01
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.18
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 7/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
Melbourne City II has seen a significant odds drift from 1.83 to 2.35, driven by market steam. However, the model probability (35.17%) is below the market's implied probability (42.55%), suggesting the market may still be overestimating their chances. The Elo difference (-103.1) also favors Altona Magic. Main risk: Melbourne City II's odds drift could reflect genuine concerns about their form or lineup, which might justify fading the home side.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.35
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 2.35
2026-07-01
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.35
2026-07-02
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 75.28). Main risk: N/A.
