Uzbekistan has a strong model probability of 38.97% compared to the market's 10.0%, resulting in a significant closing edge of 28.97 percentage points. The steam score of 97 and sharp repricing signal indicate strong market support. Main risk: Colombia's higher ELO rating and potential underestimation of their quality.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
8.50
2026-06-11
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=66, breadth=69%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=169.0h)
2026-06-12
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=68, breadth=77%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=145.0h)
2026-06-13
후보 선택
@ 8.50
2026-06-13
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 8.50
2026-06-14
패스
Ranked 13/117 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.03). Main risk: N/A.
The draw for Ecuador vs Curaçao has seen extreme odds movement (from 6.0 to 11.0) with a steam score of 99, suggesting market overreaction. Despite a high model probability of 30.57%, the sharp repricing and high volatility make this a contrarian fade. Main risk: The model's strong value signal could still materialize.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
11.00
2026-06-14
패스
Ranked 74/117 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.92). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-15
패스
Ranked 18/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-16
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 1/60, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-17
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 1/86, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-18
후보 선택
@ 11.00
2026-06-18
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 11.00
2026-06-19
패스
Ranked 4/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
패스
Ranked 6/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
Strong money flow with favorable price action. Main risk: line reverses before kickoff.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
8.50
2026-06-11
패스
Uzbekistan's odds have drifted higher, but the steam score and breadth percentage are moderate compared to the other candidate. Additionally, there is no model probability or closing edge data to support a bet. Main risk: Lack of supporting data and limited historical pattern make this fixture less compelling.
2026-06-12
패스
Uzbekistan's steam indicators are moderate, but the significant elo disadvantage and low market probability reduce confidence in backing the home side. Main risk: Uzbekistan's weak comparative metrics against Colombia.
2026-06-13
패스
Ranked 50/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.11). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
패스
Ranked 42/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.11). Main risk: N/A.
1Häcken W vs Rosengård W2-0
✓ 정확
Damallsvenskan
2026-06-18
페이드Valuation disagreementHäcken W Win
9.00
—
—
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
111일 전
9.00
이유
Rosengård W has seen a significant odds drop from 12.0 to 9.0, driven by sharp-led activity. However, the model probability (5.75%) is well below the market probability (11.11%), suggesting the move is overdone. The xG difference of 2.38 heavily favors Rosengård W, but the sharp repricing appears exaggerated. Main risk: Häcken W's home advantage could still pose a challenge despite market movement.
The market has sharply repriced against Nõmme United II, with their odds drifting from 2.0 to 2.4. However, the model probability (36.11%) is below the market probability (41.67%), indicating no edge on the home side. The steam score of 94 and breadth_pct of 85.7 suggest strong public backing, likely overheating the market. Main risk: Tallinna Kalev's away performance could still outperform expectations.
