1Vestri vs QarabagUEFA Europa League
2026-07-14
베팅Vestri Win
19.00
—
—
85
🔥
▾
참가
89일 전
19.00
이유
Vestri's odds have drifted significantly, creating a high closing edge of 34.2 percentage points. The model probability of 39.46% is much higher than the market's 5.26%, suggesting strong value. Main risk: Vestri's low Elo rating and perceived underdog status against Qarabag.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
19.00
2026-07-13
후보 선택
@ 15.00
2026-07-13
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 15.00
2026-07-14
후보 선택
@ 19.00
2026-07-14
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 19.00
2026-07-15
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/96, pre-LLM score 95.62). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-16
패스
Ranked 7/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.3). Main risk: N/A.
Borac Banja Luka's odds have drifted sharply, leading to a closing edge of 22.66 percentage points. The model probability of 33.77% is significantly higher than the market's 11.11%. Main risk: Levski Sofia's slight Elo advantage and home-field edge.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
9.00
2026-07-11
패스
Ranked 22/114 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.92). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-13
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/51, pre-LLM score 92.33). Main risk: N/A.
Real Oruro shows an exceptional closing edge of 46.27 percentage points, with the model probability at 72.52% versus the market's 26.25%. The xG difference of 1.83 also supports the pick. Main risk: Real Oruro's Elo disadvantage against Always Ready.
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a negative move of -6.2% on the draw odds, indicating potential overreaction. Historical CLV is only marginally positive at 52%, and the pattern similarity is moderate at 60%. Main risk: The sharp-led signal could indicate insider information favoring the draw.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기54
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+44.0%
커버리지 등급Low
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.75
2026-07-13
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=52, breadth=89%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=69.8h, hist_n=208, hist_clv_rate=5%)
2026-07-14
후보 선택
@ 3.75
2026-07-14
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 3.75
2026-07-15
후보 선택
@ 3.80
2KuPS vs Vardar Skopje2-3
✗ 부정확
UEFA Champions League
2026-07-14
페이드Draw
4.00
—
—
68
🔥
▾
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
89일 전
4.00
이유
Although the market is showing sharp-led repricing with a positive move of 6.7%, the closing edge is only 4.65pp. Historical CLV is moderate at 52%, and pattern similarity is below 60%. Main risk: The sharp-led signal may still hold value despite the moderate edge.
머니 시그널
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기54
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+44.0%
커버리지 등급Low
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.00
2026-07-12
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=61.8h, hist_n=245, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-13
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=30, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=37.8h, hist_n=208, hist_clv_rate=5%)
The market is experiencing drift repricing with an 8.1% positive move, but the historical CLV rate is only 52%, and pattern similarity is moderate at 56.7%. The closing edge is 4.65pp, which is below the threshold for a confident bet. Main risk: The market drift could still indicate latent value.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기54
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+44.0%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.00
2026-07-14
후보 선택
@ 4.00
2026-07-14
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.00
2026-07-15
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=47, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=39.8h, hist_n=198, hist_clv_rate=5%)
2026-07-16
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=49, breadth=77%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=15.5h, hist_n=195, hist_clv_rate=5%)
The market has heavily steamed SD Raiders, but the model probability for their win is significantly lower than the market's, indicating overreaction. The sharp repricing suggests value on the home side, Rochedale Rovers. Main risk: Rochedale's lower Elo rating and slight xG disadvantage.
⚡ 탄탄한 머니 시그널
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.00
2026-07-13
패스
Ranked 4/5 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 65.13). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
89일 전
4.20
이유
UTC Cajamarca has seen strong steam, but the model probability for their win is far below the market's, suggesting the move is unjustified. The home side, Atletico Grau, is overvalued as a result. Main risk: UTC Cajamarca's poor Elo and xG metrics.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
4.20
2026-07-14
후보 선택
@ 4.20
2026-07-14
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 4.20
2026-07-15
후보 선택
@ 4.20
2026-07-16
업데이트
@ 4.20
2026-07-16
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.20
2026-07-17
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=55, breadth=62%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=42.9h, hist_n=193, hist_clv_rate=5%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
89일 전
6.25
이유
Qingdao Jonoon's odds have drifted significantly, but the market probability remains higher than the model's. This suggests the home side, Hangzhou Greentown, is overvalued. Main risk: Hangzhou's strong xG advantage and higher Elo rating.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
○닫은
○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
6.00
2026-07-07
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=105.8h, hist_n=255, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-08
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=58, breadth=64%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=81.8h, hist_n=226, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
패스
Ranked 6/12 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.96). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-11
후보 선택
@ 6.50
2026-07-11
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 6.50
2026-07-12
패스
Ranked 4/7 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.93). Main risk: N/A.
