1Australia vs Egypt1-1
✗ 부정확
World Cup
2026-07-03
베팅Australia Win
3.50
—
—
85
🔥
▾
참가
96일 전
3.50
이유
Australia has a significant model probability advantage (67.94%) over the market probability (28.57%), supported by strong intel signals and high elo and xG differences. Main risk: Steam score is relatively low at 53, indicating less market consensus.
Croesyceiliog AFC shows extreme steam movement and sharp repricing, but the high volatility and league quality concerns make this a contrarian fade. Main risk: High volatility and potential overreaction in a low-quality league.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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✓생성된 선택
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✓닫은
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
19.00
2026-07-01
패스
Ranked 19/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 19/91 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.7). Main risk: N/A.
Germania Teveren has a massive closing edge (33.67%) and strong steam signals, with model probability (36.11%) far exceeding market probability (2.44%). Main risk: Extremely high odds suggest significant market skepticism.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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✓생성된 선택
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
41.00
2026-07-01
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/87, pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/91, pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
Qingdao Jonoon shows strong steam and a significant closing edge, indicating undervaluation by the market despite a slight Elo disadvantage. Main risk: Elo difference and low historical pattern similarity.
검증 전에 철회됨
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✓생성된 선택
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.75
2026-07-01
패스
Ranked 6/45 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.95). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
후보 선택
@ 5.75
2026-07-03
업데이트
@ 5.75
2026-07-03
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 5.75
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 6/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 101.49). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
패스
Ranked 13/42 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 101.49). Main risk: N/A.
Croesyceiliog AFC has experienced a sharp market move with strong steam and significant closing edge. Despite high volatility, the odds shift suggests the market strongly favors the away side. Main risk: High volatility and lack of historical pattern similarity.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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✓생성된 선택
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후보 선택 @
19.00
2026-07-01
패스
Ranked 32/45 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.9). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 32/45 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.9). Main risk: N/A.
Wildon has seen sharp steam and a significant closing edge, indicating strong market support despite high volatility. The odds shift creates value for the home side. Main risk: High volatility and negative xG difference.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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후보 선택 @
13.00
2026-07-01
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=60, breadth=70%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=1.0h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-02
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=60, breadth=70%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=0.6h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
Germania Teveren has experienced extreme odds movement and a substantial closing edge, suggesting strong contrarian value. Main risk: Extremely high volatility and low market probability.
🔥 매우 강한 자금 신호
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후보 선택 @
41.00
2026-07-01
패스
Ranked 8/45 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 102.36). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 8/45 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 102.36). Main risk: N/A.
The match between Grotta and HK Kopavogur shows a strong historical pattern with a 52% positive CLV rate and a pattern similarity of 55.8%. The market has repriced sharply with a significant positive closing edge of 5.12 percentage points. The odds have drifted upward, creating value. Main risk: The xG differential slightly favors HK Kopavogur, which could reduce the likelihood of a draw.
The match between Kairat Almaty and Okzhetpes has a positive historical CLV rate of 52% and a pattern similarity of 55.6%. The market is showing a sharp repricing with a closing edge of 5.21 percentage points. The odds have increased, providing a potential value opportunity. Main risk: Kairat Almaty has a significant Elo and xG advantage, which may reduce the draw probability.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기76
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.9%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
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후보 선택 @
4.30
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 4.30
2026-07-01
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.30
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 4/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.4). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
후보 선택
@ 4.30
2026-07-03
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.30
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 5/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.4). Main risk: N/A.
The match between Gold Coast Knights and Lions shows a positive historical CLV rate of 52% and a pattern similarity of 54.7%. However, the sharp repricing and closing edge of 5.67 percentage points are offset by the negative Elo and xG differentials for the draw. Main risk: The market's sharp movement may still indicate value, but the underlying metrics suggest a lower likelihood of a draw.
패턴 증거
패턴 신뢰도:
Moderate(B)
샘플 크기76
과거 CLV52%
과거 ROI+33.9%
커버리지 등급Low
검증 전에 철회됨
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후보 선택 @
4.20
2026-06-15
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=17, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=32.5h)
2026-06-16
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=15, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=8.5h)
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 4.20
2026-07-01
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.20
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 6/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
후보 선택
@ 4.20
2026-07-03
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.20
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 6/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
후보 선택
@ 4.20
2026-07-05
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.20
2026-07-06
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=88, breadth=77%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=32.3h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-07
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=67, breadth=77%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=8.3h, hist_n=548, hist_clv_rate=2%)
1Botafogo SP vs AvaiSerie B
2026-07-03
페이드Valuation disagreementAvai Win
4.75
—
—
80
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
참가
96일 전
4.75
이유
Avai has seen significant steam with odds drifting from 3.5 to 4.75, but the model probability of 12.37% is well below the market probability of 21.05%. This indicates an overheated market on Avai. Main risk: Botafogo SP's form and the low volatility in this match could still lead to a surprise result.
검증 전에 철회됨
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후보 선택 @
4.75
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 4.75
2026-07-02
업데이트
@ 4.75
2026-07-02
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 4.75
2026-07-03
후보 선택
@ 4.75
2026-07-03
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.75
2026-07-04
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/10, pre-LLM score 79.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
후보 선택
@ 4.75
2026-07-05
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 4.75
2026-07-06
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=68, breadth=38%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=20.8h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
Melbourne City II has been steamed with odds drifting from 1.83 to 2.35, but the model probability of 35.17% is below the market probability of 42.55%. The negative closing edge and low volatility suggest the market has overreacted. Main risk: Melbourne City II's potential quality despite the negative Elo differential.
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
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후보 선택 @
2.35
2026-07-01
후보 선택
@ 2.35
2026-07-01
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.35
2026-07-02
패스
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 75.28). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
후보 선택
@ 2.35
2026-07-03
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 2.35
2026-07-04
후보 선택
@ 2.30
3Colombia vs GhanaWorld Cup
2026-07-03
페이드Valuation disagreementGhana Win
8.50
—
—
70
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
참가
96일 전
8.50
이유
Ghana's odds have lengthened significantly from 6.25 to 8.5, but the model probability of 9.02% is still below the market probability of 11.76%. The market appears to have overreacted to the steam, and Colombia's Elo and xG advantage make them strong favorites. Main risk: Ghana's potential to outperform due to their historical pattern similarity.
검증 전에 철회됨
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후보 선택 @
8.50
2026-06-29
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=48, breadth=83%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=120.3h, hist_n=80, hist_clv_rate=52%)
2026-06-30
패스
Ranked 7/7 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 51.28). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-01
패스
Ranked 4/6 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 69.08). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
패스
Ranked 4/6 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 69.08). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
후보 선택
@ 8.50
2026-07-03
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 8.50
2026-07-04
패스
Ranked 6/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.71). Main risk: N/A.