1Sarıyer vs Boluspor1. Lig
2026-09-16
BETBoluspor Win
9.70
11.19
-1.4pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
7d ago
9.70
→
Expected Closing
11.19
Expected CLV
-1.4pp
Why
Boluspor has strong market drift and significant closing edge (20.72). The model probability (31.03%) is much higher than the market probability (10.31%), suggesting value. Main risk: Low elo and xG differences indicate limited team strength advantage.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.70
2026-09-15
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/131, pre-LLM score 96.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-16
Candidate pick
@ 9.70
2026-09-16
Withdrawn before validation
@ 9.70
2026-09-17
Pass
Ranked 18/159 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.67). Main risk: N/A.
Oriku shows exceptional closing edge (25.27) and strong market drift. The model probability (31.94%) is significantly higher than the market probability (6.67%), indicating strong value. Main risk: High volatility and large odds movement may indicate market overreaction.
Oriente Petrolero has seen significant sharp steam with a strong move from 3.3 to 2.6, indicating heavy market interest. The market repricing suggests confidence in their chances despite a slight negative closing edge. Main risk: Model probability is lower than market probability, indicating potential overreaction.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.60
2026-09-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=69.2h, hist_n=109, hist_clv_rate=12%)
2026-09-16
Candidate pick
@ 2.60
2026-09-16
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.60
2026-09-17
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 4/81, pre-LLM score 102.62). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 2.50
2Guabirá vs Aurora3-1
✗ Incorrect
Primera División
2026-09-16
BETAurora Win
3.70
3.15
+4.7pp
80
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
7d ago
3.70
→
Expected Closing
3.15
Expected CLV
+4.7pp
Why
Aurora has seen a strong steam move from 5.25 to 3.7, with a positive closing edge of 7.87 percentage points. The market repricing indicates confidence in their chances despite a negative Elo difference. Main risk: Lower league quality and Elo disadvantage.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.70
2026-09-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=41.7h, hist_n=109, hist_clv_rate=12%)
2026-09-16
Candidate pick
@ 3.70
—
Closing
@ 3.15
3Udinese vs CagliariSerie A
2026-09-16
BETCagliari Win
3.40
3.54
-1.2pp
88
🔥
▾
Entry
7d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
3.54
Expected CLV
-1.2pp
Why
Cagliari has a strong market move from 4.0 to 3.4 and a positive closing edge of 14.68 percentage points. The model probability significantly exceeds the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences slightly favor Udinese.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.40
2026-09-16
Candidate pick
@ 3.40
2026-09-16
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.40
2026-09-17
Pass
Ranked 12/81 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 95.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-18
Pass
Ranked 9/107 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 100.52). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
7d ago
2.70
→
Expected Closing
2.23
Expected CLV
+7.8pp
Why
PSV Eindhoven is heavily steamed, but the model probability (20.25%) is far below the market probability (37.04%). Twente's home edge and sharp repricing suggest overreaction to PSV's odds drop. Main risk: PSV's superior squad quality and historical dominance.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.70
2026-09-16
Candidate pick
@ 2.70
2026-09-16
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.70
2026-09-17
Lens filter
Lens reject: Model Top must differ from Market Top. (Current: steam=73, breadth=67%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=83.2h, hist_n=194, hist_clv_rate=19%)
2026-09-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: Model Top must differ from Market Top. (Current: steam=71, breadth=89%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=59.1h, hist_n=196, hist_clv_rate=19%)
2026-09-19
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; Model Top must differ from Market Top. (Current: steam=59, breadth=78%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=35.0h, hist_n=77, hist_clv_rate=28%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
7d ago
2.60
→
Expected Closing
2.41
Expected CLV
+3.0pp
Why
Oriente Petrolero's steam score is extreme (99), but the model probability (31.44%) is closer to market probability (38.46%) than Real Tomayapo's implied odds. The sharp repricing indicates market overreaction. Main risk: Oriente Petrolero's away form is inconsistent.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.60
2026-09-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=69.2h, hist_n=109, hist_clv_rate=12%)
2026-09-16
Candidate pick
@ 2.60
2026-09-16
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.60
2026-09-17
Lens filter
Lens reject: Model Top must differ from Market Top. (Current: steam=95, breadth=88%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=21.2h, hist_n=194, hist_clv_rate=19%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
7d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
1.89
Expected CLV
+23.5pp
Why
Silkeborg's odds have dropped significantly, but the model probability (20.61%) is lower than market probability (29.41%). Lyngby's home side is overpriced after sharp repricing. Main risk: Lyngby has a volatile home record.
