Predictions / Football / Bolivia. Primera División / Guabirá vs Aurora

Prediction Audit: Guabirá vs Aurora Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guabirá Guabirá
Sep 16, 2026 - 19:00
3 1.50
1 1.44
xG Accuracy: 59%
Aurora Aurora

AI correctly predicted the Guabirá win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Guabirá Guabirá ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Guabirá higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Guabirá -6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Guabirá 39.7% 45.9% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.2% 25.4% +1.8 pp Aligned
Aurora 33.1% 28.7% +4.3 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Guabirá's win probability at 45.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.7%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Guabirá win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Guabirá. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.94) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Guabirá higher (45.9% vs model 39.7%, 6.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Guabirá win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Guabirá 39.7% · Draw 27.2% · Aurora 33.1%
    • xG · Guabirá 1.50 — Aurora 1.44
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Guabirá 1.97 · Draw 3.57 · Aurora 3.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Guabirá 45.9% · Draw 25.4% · Aurora 28.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Guabirá 1.97 · Draw 3.57 · Aurora 3.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Guabirá 45.9% · Draw 25.4% · Aurora 28.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Guabirá win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 20:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7955095

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guabirá win · Guabirá 3–1 Aurora
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Guabirá vs Aurora
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.7% · Draw 27.2% · Away 33.1%
  • xG (showing): Guabirá 1.5 — Aurora 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.94)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.7% · Over 2.5 56.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Primera División Matches Track Guabirá Next Match Prediction Track Aurora Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Guabirá & Aurora!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Always Ready 20 13 6 1 45
2 Bolívar 20 14 3 3 45
3 The Strongest 20 12 6 2 42
4 Real Potosí 20 8 8 4 32
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 9 3 8 30
6 Aurora 20 7 9 4 30
7 Guabirá 20 8 5 7 29
8 Blooming 20 6 9 5 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 8 3 9 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 7 4 9 25
11 Real Oruro 20 6 3 11 21
12 ABB 20 6 2 12 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 6 2 12 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 5 3 12 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 4 4 12 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 2 8 10 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 54 22 +32 45
2 Always Ready 20 47 13 +34 45
3 The Strongest 20 39 22 +17 42
4 Oriente Petrolero 20 36 27 +9 30
5 Guabirá 20 32 39 -7 29
6 Real Oruro 20 32 50 -18 21
7 Aurora 20 31 27 +4 30
8 ABB 20 31 45 -14 20
9 Blooming 20 30 22 +8 27
10 Nacional Potosí 20 30 28 +2 27
11 Real Potosí 20 27 14 +13 32
12 Independiente Petrolero 20 27 35 -8 25
13 Universitario de Vinto 20 26 39 -13 18
14 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 21 37 -16 14
15 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 21 40 -19 20
16 Real Tomayapo 20 15 39 -24 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 1.6 1.4 +0.2 45
2 Real Potosí 20 1.4 1.6 -0.2 32
3 Always Ready 20 — — — 45
4 The Strongest 20 — — — 42
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 — — — 30
6 Aurora 20 — — — 30
7 Guabirá 20 — — — 29
8 Blooming 20 — — — 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 — — — 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 — — — 25
11 Real Oruro 20 — — — 21
12 ABB 20 — — — 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 — — — 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 — — — 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 — — — 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 — — — 14