Tampines Rovers show a sharp odds drop and a high closing edge (19.79), indicating strong market backing. The model probability (35.17%) far exceeds the market probability (15.38%), suggesting value. Main risk: Lower Elo rating compared to Shanghai Shenhua.
MVV's odds have dropped significantly, with a strong closing edge (17.92) and a model probability (38.97%) well above market probability (21.05%). This indicates potential value. Main risk: MVV's weaker Elo and xG metrics compared to Waalwijk.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-09-16
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
2026-09-17
Update
@ 4.75
2026-09-17
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.75
2026-09-18
Pass
Ranked 14/107 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 96.69). Main risk: N/A.
Strong steam movement with a sharp odds drop for Chicago Red Stars W, indicating significant market interest. Despite negative historical CLV patterns, the closing edge is highly positive (19.91), and the market-model gap suggests value. Main risk: Chicago's lower Elo and xG metrics compared to Washington Spirit W.
Queen of the South's odds have drifted significantly, and while the closing edge is high (25.3), the sharp drift suggests potential overreaction. Main risk: The model probability (37.06%) is significantly higher than the market probability (11.76%), indicating some value.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-09-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=108.7h, hist_n=109, hist_clv_rate=12%)
2026-09-17
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
2026-09-17
Withdrawn before validation
@ 8.50
2026-09-18
Pass
Ranked 32/107 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.3). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-19
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=57, breadth=62%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=12.6h, hist_n=77, hist_clv_rate=28%)
—
Closing
@ 8.54
5CD Olimpia vs FirpoCONCACAF Central American Cup
2026-09-17
FADEFirpo Win
8.50
6.53
+3.5pp
60
🔥
▾
Entry
6d ago
8.50
→
Expected Closing
6.53
Expected CLV
+3.5pp
Why
Firpo's odds have drifted significantly upward (70% move), suggesting a potential overreaction. Despite the high closing edge (16.17), the market seems to have adjusted for the significant Elo and xG disadvantage. Main risk: Strong steam signal and potential for unexpected performance.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-09-17
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
2026-09-17
Withdrawn before validation
@ 8.50
2026-09-18
Pass
Ranked 106/107 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 68.84). Main risk: N/A.
