Beluga Rosso Iwami has seen a massive odds shortening from 41.0 to 21.0, with a strong steam score of 90 and a closing edge of 33.73 percentage points. The model probability of 38.49% is significantly higher than the market probability of 4.76%, suggesting strong value. Main risk: High volatility and large elo difference against the pick.
Verspah Oita's odds have dropped sharply from 65.0 to 26.0, with a strong steam score of 95 and a closing edge of 27.18 percentage points. The model probability of 31.03% is much higher than the market probability of 3.85%, indicating significant value. Main risk: High volatility and limited historical pattern similarity.
Tochigi SC has experienced a notable odds drop from 15.0 to 11.0, with a steam score of 91 and a closing edge of 26.08 percentage points. The model probability of 35.17% is significantly higher than the market probability of 9.09%, providing a strong value play. Main risk: Moderate elo difference and no xG advantage.
Vikingur Reykjavik's odds have drifted from 2.45 to 3.2, with a closing edge of 6.29 percentage points. However, the model probability of 37.54% is only slightly higher than the market probability of 31.25%, and the elo difference is significantly negative. Main risk: Potential for market overreaction to drift.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.20
2026-08-26
Candidate pick
@ 3.20
—
Closing
@ 3.38
5Pafos vs Dinamo Tirana4-2
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-08-26
BETDinamo Tirana Win
8.50
11.62
-3.2pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
29d ago
8.50
→
Expected Closing
11.62
Expected CLV
-3.2pp
Why
Dinamo Tirana has seen a sharp odds drop from 12.0 to 8.5, with a closing edge of 19.27 percentage points and a model probability of 31.03% compared to a market probability of 11.76%. This indicates strong value. Main risk: Moderate elo difference and low historical pattern similarity.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-08-25
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=63.9h, hist_n=178, hist_clv_rate=7%)
1Racing Santander vs ElcheLa Liga
2026-08-26
FADEValuation disagreementRacing Santander Win
3.40
2.07
+18.9pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
29d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
2.07
Expected CLV
+18.9pp
Why
Elche's odds have drifted significantly, indicating market skepticism despite their higher Elo and xG advantage. The model probability is below the market, suggesting the drift is justified. Main risk: Racing Santander's home advantage in a low-volatility setting.
2026-08-26
Replaced with updated pick
@ 3.40(Candidate pick 3.25)
—
Closing
@ 2.07
2Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split2-3
✓ Correct
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-08-26
FADEValuation disagreementHNK Hajduk Split Win
2.10
3.21
-16.5pp
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
29d ago
2.10
→
Expected Closing
3.21
Expected CLV
-16.5pp
Why
Raków Częstochowa's odds have drifted, and the model probability is lower than the market, signaling overvaluation of Hajduk Split. Main risk: Raków's form inconsistency in European competitions.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.10
2026-08-26
Candidate pick
@ 2.10
—
Closing
@ 3.21
3Penarol vs Atletico Torque1-0
✓ Correct
Copa Uruguay
2026-08-26
FADEValuation disagreementPenarol Win
3.00
2.00
+16.7pp
62
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
29d ago
3.00
→
Expected Closing
2.00
Expected CLV
+16.7pp
Why
Atletico Torque has seen sharp steam, but the model probability is below the market, suggesting overreaction. Main risk: Penarol's historical dominance in domestic competitions.