FC Cincinnati II shows strong steam with a high steam score of 93 and sharp repricing in the market. The closing edge is positive at 15.92, and the model probability of 33.31% significantly exceeds the market probability of 17.39%. Main risk: Low historical CLV rate and potential overreaction to market movements.
Swift Hesperange has strong drift signals with a steam score of 85 and a positive closing edge of 16.11. The model probability of 36.11% is notably higher than the market probability of 20.0%. Main risk: Moderate volatility in market movements and reliance on drift signals.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
2026-09-13
Candidate pick
@ 5.00
—
Closing
@ 6.84
3Vihren vs Dobrudzha2-0
✗ Incorrect
Second League
2026-09-13
BETDobrudzha Win
11.00
10.88
+0.1pp
80
⚡
▾
Entry
11d ago
11.00
→
Expected Closing
10.88
Expected CLV
+0.1pp
Why
Dobrudzha exhibits strong drift signals with a closing edge of 28.45 and a model probability of 37.54%, far exceeding the market probability of 9.09%. The move percentage of 29.4% indicates significant market adjustment. Main risk: Elo and xG differences slightly favor the home side.
Radomlje has experienced sharp steam with odds dropping from 5.75 to 4.2, and the closing edge is high at 9.5 percentage points. The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Maribor has a notable Elo and xG advantage.
São João Ver has seen a significant odds drop from 5.0 to 3.5, indicating strong market confidence. The closing edge is positive at 6.13 percentage points, and the model probability is higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: Pacos Ferreira has a slight Elo and league quality advantage.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.50
2026-09-13
Candidate pick
@ 3.50
—
Closing
@ 3.43
3Tauro FC vs Deportivo Universitario1-0
✗ Incorrect
Liga Panameña de Fútbol
2026-09-13
BETDeportivo Universitario Win
3.10
3.14
-0.4pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
11d ago
3.10
→
Expected Closing
3.14
Expected CLV
-0.4pp
Why
Deportivo Universitario has strong steam with odds moving from 3.9 to 3.1, and the model probability is higher than the market probability. The historical pattern similarity is also relatively high at 35%. Main risk: Tauro FC has a slight Elo advantage.
Langfang Glory City has seen a significant odds drop from 7.5 to 6.0, indicating strong market confidence. The closing edge is high at 10.4 percentage points, and the model probability is much higher than the market probability. Main risk: Shandong Taishan II has a substantial Elo and xG advantage.
Ishøj has experienced sharp steam with odds moving from 5.75 to 4.2, and the closing edge is positive at 9.04 percentage points. The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Vanløse has a higher Elo rating.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
11d ago
3.60
→
Expected Closing
3.72
Expected CLV
-0.9pp
Why
The market has significantly steamed towards Silkeborg, with a sharp drop in odds from 4.5 to 3.6. However, the model probability (18.56%) is far below the market probability (27.78%), indicating overvaluation. Additionally, Silkeborg has a negative Elo and xG differential against Viborg. Main risk: Viborg underperforms despite statistical advantages.
2026-09-13
Replaced with updated pick
@ 3.60(Candidate pick 3.75)
—
Closing
@ 3.72
2Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı vs Kütahyaspor2-1
✓ Correct
2. Lig
2026-09-13
FADEValuation disagreementBeyoğlu Yeni Çarşı Win
2.30
2.30
+0.0pp
70
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
11d ago
2.30
→
Expected Closing
2.30
Expected CLV
+0.0pp
Why
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı has seen odds drift upwards despite strong steam signals, suggesting market skepticism. The model probability (39.46%) is slightly below the market probability (43.48%), and their Elo differential is significantly negative (-111.2). Main risk: Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı capitalizes on home advantage and marginal xG edge.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.30
2026-09-13
Candidate pick
@ 2.30
—
Closing
@ 2.30
3Brusque vs Inter De Limeira2-2
✗ Incorrect
Serie C
2026-09-13
FADEValuation disagreementInter De Limeira Win
2.75
3.62
-8.7pp
68
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
11d ago
2.75
→
Expected Closing
3.62
Expected CLV
-8.7pp
Why
Inter De Limeira's odds have shortened significantly, but the model probability (32.85%) is below the market probability (36.36%), suggesting overpricing. Brusque has a slight Elo and xG edge, making the away side's steam questionable. Main risk: Inter De Limeira sustains momentum from market backing.