AI correctly predicted the Vanløse win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Vanløse Vanløse ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanløse | 37.5% | 51.3% | -13.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.1% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Ishøj | 32.9% | 25.6% | +7.3 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Vanløse's win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vanløse win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Vanløse than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vanløse higher (51.2% vs model 37.5%, 13.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vanløse win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vanløse 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Ishøj 32.9%
- xG · Vanløse 1.35 — Ishøj 1.25
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vanløse 1.75 · Draw 3.88 · Ishøj 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Vanløse 51.3% · Draw 23.1% · Ishøj 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Vanløse 1.75 · Draw 3.88 · Ishøj 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Vanløse 51.3% · Draw 23.1% · Ishøj 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vanløse win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Helsingor | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Vanløse | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Holstebro | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | ASA Aarhus | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Næsby | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Frem | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | Sundby | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Ishøj | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 9 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | FC Helsingor | 9 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 3 | Brønshøj | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | Frem | 8 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Holstebro | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Vanløse | 8 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 15 |
| 8 | Næsby | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | ASA Aarhus | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Sundby | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Ringsted | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 4 |
| 12 | Ishøj | 8 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 4 |
