Strong steam and sharp repricing indicate value on Hansa Rostock, with significant closing edge and a favorable model probability compared to market probability. Main risk: The match is a friendly, which can lead to unpredictable outcomes.
AS Jeunesse Esch has strong steam but negative closing edge and lower model probability than market probability. Elo and xG metrics also favor the home side. Main risk: Market sentiment may be correct despite the metrics.
Arenas Getxo shows strong steam and significant closing edge with model probability exceeding market probability. Main risk: Eibar's higher Elo rating could pose a challenge despite the steam.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.50
2026-08-01
Candidate pick
@ 5.50
—
Closing
@ 5.32
4Xi'an Ronghai vs BIT2-0
✗ Incorrect
League Two
2026-08-01
BETBIT Win
10.00
12.29
-1.9pp
80
🔥
▾
Entry
53d ago
10.00
→
Expected Closing
12.29
Expected CLV
-1.9pp
Why
BIT has experienced sharp repricing with a massive odds drop and substantial closing edge. Model probability is significantly higher than market probability. Main risk: BIT's poor historical performance and low Elo rating.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
10.00
2026-08-01
Candidate pick
@ 10.00
—
Closing
@ 12.29
5Palmeiras vs Fortaleza EC3-0
✗ Incorrect
Copa Do Brasil
2026-08-01
BETFortaleza EC Win
15.00
10.50
+2.9pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
53d ago
15.00
→
Expected Closing
10.50
Expected CLV
+2.9pp
Why
Fortaleza EC shows strong steam and remarkable closing edge, with model probability far exceeding market probability. Main risk: The significant Elo difference favoring Palmeiras.
1Real Madrid vs Fiorentina2-2
✗ Incorrect
Friendlies Clubs
2026-08-01
FADEFiorentina Win
1.83
3.28
-24.2pp
78
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
53d ago
1.83
→
Expected Closing
3.28
Expected CLV
-24.2pp
Why
Real Madrid's odds have drifted significantly, indicating market skepticism. The model probability (35.17%) is far below the market probability (54.64%), suggesting the current price on Real Madrid is overvalued. Main risk: Real Madrid's quality and reputation in friendlies.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
1.83
2026-08-01
Candidate pick
@ 1.83
—
Closing
@ 3.28
2Progres Niederkorn vs AS Jeunesse Esch2-1
✓ Correct
National Division
2026-08-01
FADEValuation disagreementProgres Niederkorn Win
2.75
2.12
+10.8pp
70
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
53d ago
2.75
→
Expected Closing
2.12
Expected CLV
+10.8pp
Why
AS Jeunesse Esch has seen strong steam with a significant odds drop, but the model probability (34.7%) is close to the market probability (36.36%), indicating limited value. The home side, Progres Niederkorn, is likely overvalued. Main risk: AS Jeunesse Esch's lower Elo rating and recent form.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
53d ago
4.33
→
Expected Closing
1.71
Expected CLV
+35.4pp
Why
IMT Novi Beograd has seen a strong market move with odds shortening significantly, but the model probability (12.58%) is well below the market probability (23.09%), suggesting an overreaction. Main risk: FK Partizan's superior xG difference and home advantage.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.33
2026-08-01
Candidate pick
@ 4.33
2026-08-01
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.33
2026-08-02
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=63, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=17.0h, hist_n=444, hist_clv_rate=3%)
