Lions show strong drift with a significant move in odds from 3.9 to 6.5, indicating undervaluation by the market. The model probability of 40.42% is much higher than the market probability of 15.38%, and the closing edge is excellent at 25.04. Main risk: Melbourne City is a stronger team based on Elo and historical performance.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
2026-08-08
Candidate pick
@ 6.50
2026-08-08
Withdrawn before validation
@ 6.50
2026-08-10
Pass
Ranked 13/70 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.1). Main risk: N/A.
FC Juarez exhibits strong drift with odds moving from 5.5 to 7.5, creating a substantial closing edge of 23.26. The model probability of 36.59% far exceeds the market probability of 13.33%. Main risk: Vancouver Whitecaps have home advantage and slightly better Elo ratings.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.50
2026-08-08
Candidate pick
@ 7.50
—
Closing
@ 7.18
3Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg0-1
✗ Incorrect
Allsvenskan
2026-08-08
BETMjallby AIF Win
2.60
2.67
-1.0pp
72
⚡
▾
Entry
47d ago
2.60
→
Expected Closing
2.67
Expected CLV
-1.0pp
Why
Mjallby AIF has strong drift with odds moving from 2.05 to 2.6, and the model probability of 58.03% is significantly higher than the market probability of 38.46%. The closing edge is solid at 19.57. Main risk: IF Elfsborg has a higher Elo rating and better recent form.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.60
2026-08-07
Pass
Ranked 14/189 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 88.28). Main risk: N/A.
1Tepatitlán vs CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX
2026-08-08
BETCA La Paz Win
3.10
3.25
-1.5pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
47d ago
3.10
→
Expected Closing
3.25
Expected CLV
-1.5pp
Why
CA La Paz has seen a significant market move with odds shortening from 5.0 to 3.1, indicating strong market confidence. The steam score is extremely high at 99, and the breadth_pct is 100%, suggesting widespread backing. Despite a slight negative closing edge (-1.23), the sharp repricing and strong steam signal make this a high-confidence momentum play. Main risk: Tepatitlán's slight Elo and home advantage.
Avellino has seen a sharp odds drop from 7.0 to 5.5, with a strong steam signal and a significant positive closing edge of 17.46. While Torino is the stronger team on paper, the market movement suggests value on Avellino. Main risk: Torino's superior Elo and squad depth.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.50
2026-08-08
Candidate pick
@ 5.50
—
Closing
@ 3.62
3Estrela vs Sporting CP2-2
✗ Incorrect
Primeira Liga
2026-08-08
FADESporting CP Win
12.00
1.24
+72.3pp
65
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
47d ago
12.00
→
Expected Closing
1.24
Expected CLV
+72.3pp
Why
Sporting CP is heavily favored, but the odds movement and sharp repricing suggest potential overconfidence in the market. Estrela's odds shortening from 15.0 to 12.0 indicates some contrarian value. Main risk: Sporting CP's clear superiority in Elo and xG metrics.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
12.00
2026-08-07
Pass
Ranked 63/78 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.06). Main risk: N/A.
2026-08-08
Candidate pick
@ 12.00
—
Closing
@ 1.24
4Real Estelí vs Walter Ferretti4-1
✗ Incorrect
Primera Division
2026-08-08
BETWalter Ferretti Win
3.60
4.08
-3.3pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
47d ago
3.60
→
Expected Closing
4.08
Expected CLV
-3.3pp
Why
Walter Ferretti has seen a sharp odds drop from 5.25 to 3.6, with a strong steam signal and a low volatility environment. The market confidence aligns with the model probability, making this a reasonable momentum play. Main risk: Real Estelí's significant Elo advantage.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.60
2026-08-08
Candidate pick
@ 3.60
—
Closing
@ 4.08
5Barcelona SC vs Macara1-2
✓ Correct
Liga Pro
2026-08-08
BETMacara Win
4.50
6.30
-6.3pp
68
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
47d ago
4.50
→
Expected Closing
6.30
Expected CLV
-6.3pp
Why
Macara's odds have shortened significantly from 5.5 to 4.5, with a strong steam signal and a substantial positive closing edge of 21.09. Despite a negative Elo difference, the market movement suggests value. Main risk: Barcelona SC's home advantage and higher Elo.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.50
2026-08-07
Pass
Ranked 28/78 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.93). Main risk: N/A.
1Plaza Amador vs Tauro FC3-2
✗ Incorrect
Liga Panameña de Fútbol
2026-08-08
FADEValuation disagreementTauro FC Win
3.25
3.73
-4.0pp
75
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
47d ago
3.25
→
Expected Closing
3.73
Expected CLV
-4.0pp
Why
Tauro FC has experienced significant steam with a sharp odds drop from 4.2 to 3.25, but the model probability of 26.22% is well below the market's 30.77%, indicating overreaction. Main risk: Tauro's slight xG and Elo edge over Plaza Amador.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
47d ago
2.90
→
Expected Closing
2.90
Expected CLV
+0.0pp
Why
Getafe's odds have shortened significantly, but the model probability of 31.03% is below the market's 34.48%. This suggests the steam is unwarranted. Main risk: Tottenham may field a weaker lineup in this friendly match.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.90
2026-08-08
Candidate pick
@ 2.90
—
Closing
@ 2.90
3Independiente vs Platense0-1
✓ Correct
Liga Profesional Argentina
2026-08-08
FADEValuation disagreementPlatense Win
5.50
5.49
+0.0pp
68
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
47d ago
5.50
→
Expected Closing
5.49
Expected CLV
+0.0pp
Why
Platense has seen strong steam with odds dropping from 6.5 to 5.5, but the model probability of 17.19% is slightly below the market's 18.18%. This indicates a minor overreaction. Main risk: Platense's xG and Elo advantages over Independiente.
