Penrhyncoch shows strong drift signals with a significant closing edge of 25.47%. The model probability of 42.86% is much higher than the market probability of 17.39%, indicating value. Main risk: The team's lower Elo rating and historical underperformance could impact their chances.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.75
2026-09-12
Candidate pick
@ 5.75
—
Closing
@ 5.46
2Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec2-0
✓ Correct
Czech Liga
2026-09-12
FADESparta Praha Win
5.00
1.60
+42.5pp
70
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
11d ago
5.00
→
Expected Closing
1.60
Expected CLV
+42.5pp
Why
Sparta Praha's odds have been sharply repriced, but FK Jablonec's strong steam and significant closing edge of 20.11% suggest potential overreaction in the market. Main risk: Sparta Praha's superior Elo and xG metrics could still dominate the match.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
2026-09-12
Candidate pick
@ 5.00
—
Closing
@ 1.60
3Morecambe vs Brackley Town3-0
✗ Incorrect
National League - North
2026-09-12
BETBrackley Town Win
4.20
4.60
-2.1pp
75
⚡
▾
Entry
11d ago
4.20
→
Expected Closing
4.60
Expected CLV
-2.1pp
Why
Brackley Town has a solid closing edge of 17.1% and a model probability of 40.91%, which is significantly higher than the market probability of 23.81%. The drift signals align with potential value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor Morecambe, which could impact the outcome.
1VJS vs Inter Turku II2-1
✗ Incorrect
Ykkönen
2026-09-12
BETInter Turku II Win
4.50
3.60
+5.6pp
75
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
11d ago
4.50
→
Expected Closing
3.60
Expected CLV
+5.6pp
Why
Inter Turku II has experienced a sharp odds drop from 6.0 to 4.5, with strong steam and a closing edge of 11.09 percentage points. The model probability of 33.31% is significantly higher than the market probability of 22.22%. Low volatility and sharp repricing further validate the bet. Main risk: Limited historical pattern similarity and relatively small Elo difference.
Brežice has seen a sharp odds drop from 9.5 to 6.25, with a closing edge of 11.5 percentage points and strong market steam. The model probability of 27.5% is significantly higher than the market probability of 16%. The sharp repricing and low volatility make this an attractive bet. Main risk: Brežice's significant Elo disadvantage (-168.1).
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.25
2026-09-12
Candidate pick
@ 6.25
2026-09-12
Withdrawn before validation
@ 6.25
2026-09-13
Pass
Ranked 15/72 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.78). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-15
Pass
Ranked 16/36 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 84.97). Main risk: N/A.
3Auda vs Ogre UnitedVirsliga
2026-09-12
BETOgre United Win
8.50
7.87
+0.9pp
74
🔥
▾
Entry
11d ago
8.50
→
Expected Closing
7.87
Expected CLV
+0.9pp
Why
Tamworth's odds have dropped from 4.75 to 3.7, showing strong market confidence. The model probability of 35.64% exceeds the market probability of 27.03%, with a closing edge of 8.61 percentage points. The sharp repricing and low volatility further support this bet. Main risk: Tamworth's significant Elo disadvantage (-147.3).
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-08-02
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=58, breadth=67%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=38.0h, hist_n=164, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-09-12
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
2026-09-12
Withdrawn before validation
@ 8.50
2026-09-13
Pass
Ranked 17/72 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-15
Pass
Ranked 8/36 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-16
Pass
Ranked 47/59 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.27). Main risk: N/A.
Aris Thessalonikis has experienced an odds drop from 7.0 to 5.75, indicating market confidence. The model probability of 32.28% is much higher than the market probability of 17.39%, providing a strong closing edge of 14.89 percentage points. Main risk: PAOK's higher Elo rating and historical performance.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.75
2026-09-12
Candidate pick
@ 5.75
2026-09-12
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.75
2026-09-13
Pass
Ranked 28/72 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.93). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
11d ago
2.70
→
Expected Closing
3.58
Expected CLV
-9.1pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed Zira, with odds dropping significantly from 3.9 to 2.7. However, the model probability of 29.25% is well below the market's 37.04%, indicating an overreaction. The closing edge is negative, and Zira has a slight disadvantage in both Elo and xG metrics. Main risk: Zira's home advantage and potential market sentiment driving the price.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.70
2026-09-12
Candidate pick
@ 2.70
2026-09-12
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.70
2026-09-13
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=69, breadth=56%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=13.8h, hist_n=210, hist_clv_rate=16%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
11d ago
3.75
→
Expected Closing
3.72
Expected CLV
+0.2pp
Why
Silkeborg has seen strong steam with odds dropping from 4.5 to 3.75, but the model probability of 18.56% is significantly below the market's 26.67%, indicating poor value. Additionally, Silkeborg has a notable disadvantage in both Elo and xG metrics. Main risk: Potential underestimation of Silkeborg's home performance.
2026-09-13
Replaced with updated pick
@ 3.60(Candidate pick 3.75)
—
Closing
@ 3.72
3Kaspiy vs Aktobe1-2
✓ Correct
Premier League
2026-09-12
BETValuation disagreementAktobe Win
2.55
1.89
+13.7pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
11d ago
2.55
→
Expected Closing
1.89
Expected CLV
+13.7pp
Why
Aktobe has a clear Elo advantage (+59.3) and the model probability of 35.64% is close to the market's 39.22%, suggesting value at the current odds of 2.55. The market drift has increased the odds, creating an opportunity. Main risk: Minimal xG differential and potential overestimation of Aktobe's form.
