1Boca Juniors vs Lanus1-0
✗ Incorrect
Liga Profesional Argentina
2026-08-29
BETLanus Win
4.75
5.14
-1.6pp
72
🔥
▾
Entry
26d ago
4.75
→
Expected Closing
5.14
Expected CLV
-1.6pp
Why
Lanus has strong steam (steam score 92) and a significant closing edge of 14.46 percentage points. The market is sharply repricing, indicating sharp money backing the away side. Main risk: Boca Juniors' superior Elo rating and home advantage.
Pinzgau Saalfelden shows strong steam (steam score 94) and a high closing edge of 16.06 percentage points. The market is sharply repricing, suggesting significant support for the away team. Main risk: Moderate Elo advantage for Wals-Grünau.
Club Atlético Güemes has a strong steam score (94) and the highest closing edge in the list at 19.32 percentage points. The market is sharply repricing, indicating strong support for the away side. Main risk: Significant Elo disadvantage for Club Atlético Güemes.
Pinzgau Saalfelden has strong market momentum with a significant odds drop from 7.5 to 5.5, indicating sharp money support. The model probability of 34.24% exceeds the market probability of 18.18%, providing a substantial closing edge of 16.06 percentage points. Main risk: Low xG difference and potential overreaction to market steam.
Aalesund shows strong steam movement with odds dropping from 11.0 to 7.5 and a closing edge of 9.63 percentage points. The model probability of 22.96% is significantly higher than the market probability of 13.33%. Main risk: Moderate elo and xG disadvantages against Viking.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.50
2026-08-26
Pass
Ranked 45/50 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.97). Main risk: N/A.
Club Atlético Güemes has strong steam support with odds dropping from 8.5 to 6.5 and a massive closing edge of 19.32 percentage points. The model probability of 34.7% is more than double the market probability of 15.38%. Main risk: Negative elo differential and limited xG advantage.
Sunshine Georgies exhibit strong steam movement with odds dropping from 4.33 to 3.5 and a closing edge of 8.97 percentage points. The model probability of 37.54% exceeds the market probability of 28.57%. Main risk: Elo and xG metrics slightly favor South Melbourne.
Gobelins show strong steam with odds dropping from 5.0 to 3.9 and a closing edge of 4.05 percentage points. The model probability of 29.69% is higher than the market probability of 25.64%. Main risk: Negative elo differential and limited historical pattern similarity.
1Amed vs TrabzonsporSüper Lig
2026-08-29
FADEContrarianAmed Win
2.00
3.34
-20.1pp
75
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
26d ago
2.00
→
Expected Closing
3.34
Expected CLV
-20.1pp
Why
Trabzonspor's odds have drifted significantly, indicating market skepticism despite their higher Elo and xG advantage. The model probability is much lower than the market probability, suggesting overvaluation of the away side. Main risk: Trabzonspor's superior quality and recent form could still lead to a win.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.00
2026-08-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=64, breadth=80%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=137.4h, hist_n=267, hist_clv_rate=12%)
2026-08-29
Candidate pick
@ 2.00
2026-08-29
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.00
2026-08-31
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=65, breadth=92%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=17.4h, hist_n=258, hist_clv_rate=12%)
—
Closing
@ 3.34
2Mt Druitt Town vs Northern Tigers0-3
✗ Incorrect
New South Wales NPL 2
2026-08-29
FADEContrarianMt Druitt Town Win
2.55
3.09
-6.8pp
70
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
26d ago
2.55
→
Expected Closing
3.09
Expected CLV
-6.8pp
Why
Northern Tigers have seen strong odds drift, but the model probability is below the market probability, indicating potential overpricing of the away side. Elo and xG differences favor the away team, but the drift suggests a contrarian opportunity. Main risk: Northern Tigers' slight edge in quality could prevail.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.55
2026-08-29
Candidate pick
@ 2.55
—
Closing
@ 3.09
3Treviso vs LeccoSerie C - Girone A
2026-08-29
FADEValuation disagreementTreviso Win
2.70
2.21
+8.2pp
68
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
26d ago
2.70
→
Expected Closing
2.21
Expected CLV
+8.2pp
Why
Lecco's odds have drifted, and the model probability is slightly below the market probability, suggesting the away side may be overpriced. Elo and xG differences are negligible, making this a contrarian fade on the home side. Main risk: Lecco's recent drift could indicate genuine market adjustment.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.70
2026-08-29
Candidate pick
@ 2.70
2026-08-29
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.70
2026-08-31
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/5, pre-LLM score 59.63). Main risk: N/A.
