1CD Motagua vs FAS1-0
✗ Incorrect
CONCACAF Central American Cup
2026-08-07
BETFAS Win
3.50
3.24
+2.3pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
48d ago
3.50
→
Expected Closing
3.24
Expected CLV
+2.3pp
Why
Strong steam movement on FAS with a significant odds drop from 4.75 to 3.5 and a positive closing edge of 5.2 percentage points. Despite an elo disadvantage, the market is sharply repricing in favor of FAS. Main risk: Elo disparity and historical underperformance in similar situations.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.50
2026-08-07
Candidate pick
@ 3.50
—
Closing
@ 3.24
2Riga vs Ogre UnitedVirsliga
2026-08-07
BETOgre United Win
10.00
25.93
-6.1pp
78
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
48d ago
10.00
→
Expected Closing
25.93
Expected CLV
-6.1pp
Why
Ogre United has seen a massive odds drop from 16.0 to 10.0, with a huge closing edge of 15.79 percentage points. Despite being an underdog, the market is showing strong confidence in their chances. Main risk: Limited historical pattern similarity and significant elo disadvantage.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
10.00
2026-08-07
Candidate pick
@ 10.00
2026-08-07
Withdrawn before validation
@ 10.00
2026-08-08
Pass
Ranked 41/111 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 84.76). Main risk: N/A.
Dungannon Swifts has strong steam support and a notable odds drop from 6.0 to 4.5, with a closing edge of 8.81 percentage points. Despite a negative elo and xG differential, the sharp market move suggests value. Main risk: Poor underlying metrics and historical underperformance.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.50
2026-08-07
Candidate pick
@ 4.50
2026-08-07
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.50
2026-08-08
Pass
Ranked 21/111 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 93.22). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 4.98
4Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz0-5
✓ Correct
Liga de Expansión MX
2026-08-07
BETCA La Paz Win
3.30
3.25
+0.5pp
68
🔥
▾
Entry
48d ago
3.30
→
Expected Closing
3.25
Expected CLV
+0.5pp
Why
CA La Paz has experienced a significant odds drop from 5.0 to 3.3, with sharp steam and a slight positive closing edge. The xG differential is mildly favorable. Main risk: Elo disadvantage and limited historical pattern similarity.
Launceston United has strong steam support with odds dropping from 8.0 to 6.25 and a closing edge of 11.5 percentage points. Elo and xG metrics are favorable for an underdog. Main risk: Historical pattern similarity is low, and volatility is minimal.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.25
2026-08-07
Candidate pick
@ 6.25
2026-08-07
Withdrawn before validation
@ 6.25
2026-08-08
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=47, breadth=9%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=3.5h, hist_n=144, hist_clv_rate=12%)
1Thisted FC vs FA 20000-1
✓ Correct
2. Division
2026-08-07
FADEValuation disagreementFA 2000 Win
2.25
3.87
-18.6pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
48d ago
2.25
→
Expected Closing
3.87
Expected CLV
-18.6pp
Why
Thisted FC has seen a significant drift in odds, indicating market skepticism despite their slight xG advantage. The model probability (36.11%) is well below the market probability (44.44%), suggesting the home side is overvalued. Main risk: The low volatility and historical CLV suggest the market might stabilize closer to kickoff.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.25
2026-08-07
Candidate pick
@ 2.25
—
Closing
@ 3.87
2Atlético Mineiro W vs Bahia W0-3
✓ Correct
Brasileiro Women
2026-08-07
FADEValuation disagreementBahia W Win
3.10
2.10
+15.4pp
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
48d ago
3.10
→
Expected Closing
2.10
Expected CLV
+15.4pp
Why
Atlético Mineiro W has experienced strong steam, but the model probability (27.93%) is lower than the market probability (32.26%). The sharp repricing and significant elo disadvantage (-187.6) indicate the home side's odds are likely inflated. Main risk: The market may have insider information favoring the home team.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
48d ago
2.50
→
Expected Closing
2.73
Expected CLV
-3.4pp
Why
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's odds have drifted significantly, and the model probability (37.54%) is below the market probability (40.0%). The strong drift and elo disadvantage (-117.2) suggest the home side is overvalued. Main risk: The historical pattern similarity of 35% indicates some potential for market correction.
