Port Melbourne shows strong drift signals with high steam score and significant odds movement. The model probability of 36.11% is notably higher than the market probability of 11.11%, indicating value. Main risk: High volatility in the league and potential overreaction to market drift.
Deportivo San Pedro exhibits strong drift signals with a closing edge of 20.44 and a model probability of 33.77%, significantly higher than the market probability of 13.33%. Main risk: Limited historical CLV and potential underperformance in low-volatility conditions.
Agropecuario has strong drift signals and a closing edge of 14.72. The model probability of 33.77% is substantially higher than the market probability of 19.05%, suggesting value. Main risk: Moderate league quality and potential market overreaction to drift signals.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.25
2026-08-18
Pass
Ranked 41/107 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 60.73). Main risk: N/A.
2026-08-19
Pass
Ranked 66/135 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.33). Main risk: N/A.
1Sporting CP vs Alverca3-1
✗ Incorrect
Primeira Liga
2026-08-22
BETAlverca Win
12.00
13.77
-1.1pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
33d ago
12.00
→
Expected Closing
13.77
Expected CLV
-1.1pp
Why
Alverca shows strong steam movement with a significant odds drop from 17.0 to 12.0 and a high steam score of 97. The closing edge is substantial at +11.38 percentage points, and the model probability of 19.71% is notably higher than the market probability of 8.33%. Main risk: Sporting CP is a strong team with a significant Elo and xG advantage.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
12.00
2026-08-19
Pass
Ranked 13/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.7). Main risk: N/A.
Rizhao Yuqi has a strong steam score of 96 and a significant odds drop from 4.2 to 3.1. The closing edge is +7.68 percentage points, and the model probability of 39.94% is higher than the market probability of 32.26%. Main risk: Rizhao Yuqi has a significant Elo and xG disadvantage, which could impact their ability to win.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.10
2026-08-22
Candidate pick
@ 3.10
—
Closing
@ 3.65
3Guabirá vs Blooming1-1
✗ Incorrect
Primera División
2026-08-22
BETBlooming Win
3.50
2.93
+5.6pp
65
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
33d ago
3.50
→
Expected Closing
2.93
Expected CLV
+5.6pp
Why
Blooming has strong steam with a 36.4% odds drop and a steam score of 96. The model probability of 33.59% is higher than the market probability of 28.57%, and the closing edge is +5.02 percentage points. Main risk: Blooming has a significant Elo disadvantage, which could affect their performance.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.50
2026-08-22
Candidate pick
@ 3.50
—
Closing
@ 2.93
4West Ham vs Charlton1-2
✓ Correct
Championship
2026-08-22
BETCharlton Win
8.00
7.83
+0.3pp
68
🔥
▾
Entry
33d ago
8.00
→
Expected Closing
7.83
Expected CLV
+0.3pp
Why
Charlton has a strong steam score of 89 and a significant closing edge of +21.33 percentage points. The model probability of 33.83% is much higher than the market probability of 12.5%. Main risk: Charlton has a large Elo disadvantage, which could hinder their chances of winning.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.00
2026-08-17
Candidate pick
@ 7.50
2026-08-17
Withdrawn before validation
@ 7.50
2026-08-18
Pass
Ranked 8/34 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.78). Main risk: N/A.
2026-08-19
Pass
Ranked 12/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.78). Main risk: N/A.
2026-08-22
Candidate pick
@ 8.00
—
Closing
@ 7.83
5Huracan vs Deportivo Riestra0-0
✗ Incorrect
Liga Profesional Argentina
2026-08-22
BETDeportivo Riestra Win
5.00
4.40
+2.7pp
66
🔥
▾
Entry
33d ago
5.00
→
Expected Closing
4.40
Expected CLV
+2.7pp
Why
Deportivo Riestra has a strong steam score of 84 and a closing edge of +20.88 percentage points. The model probability of 40.88% is significantly higher than the market probability of 20.0%. Main risk: Deportivo Riestra has an Elo disadvantage and a negative xG differential, which could impact their performance.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
2026-08-18
Pass
Ranked 14/34 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-08-19
Pass
Ranked 14/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.7). Main risk: N/A.
1Atlético Choloma vs Platense FC2-0
✓ Correct
Liga Nacional
2026-08-22
FADEContrarianAtlético Choloma Win
2.25
2.23
+0.4pp
80
🔥
▾
Entry
33d ago
2.25
→
Expected Closing
2.23
Expected CLV
+0.4pp
Why
Atlético Choloma has seen significant market steam, but the model probability (28.37%) is far below the market probability (44.44%), indicating an overreaction. Additionally, the team has a significant Elo and xG disadvantage. Main risk: Market steam could indicate insider information not captured by the model.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.25
2026-08-22
Candidate pick
@ 2.25
—
Closing
@ 2.23
2St. George Saints vs Blacktown City1-0
✓ Correct
New South Wales NPL
2026-08-22
FADEValuation disagreementSt. George Saints Win
2.62
2.50
+1.8pp
75
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
33d ago
2.62
→
Expected Closing
2.50
Expected CLV
+1.8pp
Why
St. George Saints have experienced strong steam, but the model probability (32.85%) is lower than the market probability (38.17%), suggesting the market may be overvaluing them. The team also has a slight Elo and xG disadvantage. Main risk: The market's sharp repricing could reflect accurate information not captured by the model.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.62
2026-08-22
Candidate pick
@ 2.62
—
Closing
@ 2.50
3Victoriano Arenas vs Berazategui1-0
✓ Correct
Primera C
2026-08-22
FADEValuation disagreementVictoriano Arenas Win
2.88
3.31
-4.5pp
70
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
33d ago
2.88
→
Expected Closing
3.31
Expected CLV
-4.5pp
Why
Victoriano Arenas has seen strong steam, but the model probability (26.22%) is significantly lower than the market probability (34.72%), indicating potential overvaluation. The team also has a substantial Elo and xG disadvantage. Main risk: The market might have insider knowledge favoring Victoriano Arenas.