1San Diego vs Club Tijuana1-0
✗ Incorrect
Leagues Cup
2026-08-10
BETClub Tijuana Win
3.50
3.84
-2.5pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
45d ago
3.50
→
Expected Closing
3.84
Expected CLV
-2.5pp
Why
Club Tijuana has experienced strong steam with a significant odds drop from 4.5 to 3.5, indicating sharp market support. The closing edge is positive, and the market state suggests a sharp repricing. Main risk: The match is close to kickoff, so late market corrections could occur.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.50
2026-08-10
Candidate pick
@ 3.50
—
Closing
@ 3.84
2Austin II vs Sporting KC II1-0
✓ Correct
MLS Next Pro
2026-08-10
FADEAustin II Win
4.20
1.51
+42.4pp
78
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
45d ago
4.20
→
Expected Closing
1.51
Expected CLV
+42.4pp
Why
Sporting KC II has seen a sharp odds drop from 5.75 to 4.2, signaling strong steam. The closing edge is significantly positive, and the market state indicates sharp repricing. Main risk: The match has already started, so the opportunity may be limited.
Teplice has a strong steam signal with a notable odds drop from 10.62 to 8.84. The closing edge is highly positive, and the market is undergoing sharp repricing. Main risk: Teplice is a significant underdog, and their chances of winning remain low despite the market movement.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.84
2026-08-10
Candidate pick
@ 8.84
2026-08-10
Withdrawn before validation
@ 8.84
2026-08-12
Pass
Ranked 23/40 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.63). Main risk: N/A.
Comerciantes Unidos has a positive closing edge and strong market steam, with odds dropping from 4.86 to 4.23. The market state indicates sharp repricing. Main risk: The match is still far from kickoff, leaving room for further market fluctuations.
IF Brommapojkarna has seen a significant odds drift from 7.5 to 9.0, suggesting a potential overreaction against them. The model probability is slightly higher than the market probability. Main risk: The market drift signal is not as strong as others, and Brommapojkarna remains a clear underdog.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
45d ago
2.40
→
Expected Closing
2.22
Expected CLV
+3.4pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed the draw, with odds dropping significantly from 3.1 to 2.4. However, the model probability for a draw is just 29.64%, much lower than the market-implied probability of 41.67%, indicating a significant overreaction. Main risk: The match's low volatility and slight xG parity could still lead to a draw.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
45d ago
4.50
→
Expected Closing
4.36
Expected CLV
+0.7pp
Why
Despite strong steam on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, the model assigns them only a 12.27% win probability compared to the market's 22.22%. The drift in odds suggests the market is correcting an initial overvaluation. Main risk: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's xG advantage could lead to an upset.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.50
2026-08-10
Candidate pick
@ 4.50
2026-08-10
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.50
2026-08-12
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=61, breadth=56%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=89.9h, hist_n=357, hist_clv_rate=8%)
2026-08-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=44, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=17.9h, hist_n=110, hist_clv_rate=11%)
