1FC Nordsjaelland vs Valur Reykjavik5-0
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-08-12
BETValur Reykjavik Win
23.00
19.67
+0.7pp
85
⚡
▾
Entry
43d ago
23.00
→
Expected Closing
19.67
Expected CLV
+0.7pp
Why
Valur Reykjavik offers significant value with a model probability of 35.64% against a market probability of just 4.35%. The closing edge of 31.29 is the highest among all candidates, and the market drift suggests potential mispricing. Main risk: The large odds suggest a low probability of success, and the market may be underestimating the favorite's strength.
KuPS shows strong value with a model probability of 32.39% versus a market probability of 11.11%, supported by a closing edge of 21.28. The strong drift and low volatility add confidence to this pick. Main risk: KuPS faces a higher-quality opponent, and the odds reflect their underdog status.
Independ. Rivadavia has a model probability of 54.05% compared to a market probability of 27.78%, yielding a strong closing edge of 26.27. The sharp repricing indicates market support for this side. Main risk: The xG differential of -0.77 suggests potential weaknesses in their attacking output.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.60
2026-08-12
Candidate pick
@ 3.60
2026-08-12
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.60
2026-08-15
Pass
Ranked 31/222 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 76.72). Main risk: N/A.
Eldense has seen sharp steam with a significant odds drop from 11.0 to 9.0, indicating strong market support. Despite being an underdog, the model probability of 30.14% far exceeds the market probability of 11.11%, providing a substantial closing edge of 19.03 percentage points. Main risk: Almeria's higher Elo rating and home advantage.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
2026-08-12
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
2026-08-12
Withdrawn before validation
@ 9.00
2026-08-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=57, breadth=69%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=66.4h, hist_n=110, hist_clv_rate=11%)
FC Juarez has experienced a strong drift with odds moving from 4.0 to 4.75, yet the model probability of 37.06% is significantly higher than the market probability of 21.05%, resulting in a closing edge of 16.01 percentage points. Main risk: Real Salt Lake's home-field advantage.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-08-12
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
—
Closing
@ 4.97
3Real Estelí vs Alianza3-1
✗ Incorrect
CONCACAF Central American Cup
2026-08-12
BETAlianza Win
5.50
4.77
+2.8pp
74
🔥
▾
Entry
43d ago
5.50
→
Expected Closing
4.77
Expected CLV
+2.8pp
Why
Alianza has seen a strong drift with odds moving from 4.33 to 5.5, while the model probability of 32.85% is significantly higher than the market probability of 18.18%, yielding a closing edge of 14.67 percentage points. Main risk: Real Estelí's Elo advantage and home form.
Tigres UANL is heavily favored, but the market is heavily drifting away from them, with odds moving from 4.0 to 6.5 for Vancouver Whitecaps. This suggests potential overpricing of Tigres. Main risk: Tigres' superior squad quality and home advantage.
KuPS has seen a strong drift with odds moving from 7.5 to 9.0. The model probability of 32.39% is significantly higher than the market probability of 11.11%, providing a massive closing edge of 21.28 percentage points. Main risk: Universitatea Craiova's higher Elo rating and home advantage.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
43d ago
2.62
→
Expected Closing
2.59
Expected CLV
+0.4pp
Why
The market has sharply steamed Nancy, but the model probability for a home win (31.03%) is significantly below the market probability (38.17%), indicating overvaluation. Main risk: Nancy's slight Elo advantage and potential for home-ground impact.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.62
2026-08-12
Candidate pick
@ 2.62
—
Closing
@ 2.59
2Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv2-0
✓ Correct
First League
2026-08-12
FADEValuation disagreementLudogorets Win
5.00
1.59
+42.9pp
75
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
43d ago
5.00
→
Expected Closing
1.59
Expected CLV
+42.9pp
Why
Botev Plovdiv's odds have shortened significantly, but the model probability for an away win (13.9%) is far below the market probability (20.0%). This suggests the market is overreacting to steam. Main risk: Ludogorets' clear superiority in Elo and xG metrics.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
43d ago
3.20
→
Expected Closing
2.07
Expected CLV
+17.1pp
Why
Aarhus has seen strong market drift, but the model probability (27.14%) is still below the market probability (31.25%). This indicates potential overpricing of the away side. Main risk: Viborg's slight Elo advantage and home-ground factor.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.20
2026-08-10
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=45, breadth=64%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=111.9h, hist_n=125, hist_clv_rate=11%)
