Nyiregyhaza has experienced a sharp steam move with a significant odds drop from 8.0 to 5.0, indicating strong market confidence. The closing edge is positive, and the model probability exceeds market probability. Main risk: Elo difference favors Gyori ETO FC.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
2026-08-01
Pass
Ranked 11/97 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 101.3). Main risk: N/A.
Internacional RS W has a notable positive closing edge and strong steam signal, with a significant odds drop from 8.0 to 5.75. Model probability is significantly higher than market probability. Main risk: Palmeiras W has a higher Elo rating.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.75
2026-08-01
Pass
Ranked 13/97 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 101.3). Main risk: N/A.
Fortaleza EC has a massive positive closing edge of 24.06 and a sharp odds drop from 21.0 to 12.0, suggesting strong market momentum. Model probability is significantly higher than market probability. Main risk: High volatility and Elo difference slightly favor Palmeiras.
2026-08-02
Replaced with updated pick
@ 12.00(Candidate pick 15.00)
—
Closing
@ 10.50
4Vojvodina vs Macva2-0
✗ Incorrect
Super Liga
2026-08-02
BETMacva Win
17.00
14.97
+0.8pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
53d ago
17.00
→
Expected Closing
14.97
Expected CLV
+0.8pp
Why
Macva shows a substantial positive closing edge of 22.38 and strong steam signal. The odds have dropped significantly, and the model probability is much higher than the market probability. Main risk: Extremely low market probability suggests high risk.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
17.00
2026-08-01
Pass
Ranked 53/97 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.39). Main risk: N/A.
2026-08-02
Candidate pick
@ 17.00
—
Closing
@ 14.97
5Veraguas vs Deportivo Universitario2-1
✗ Incorrect
Liga Panameña de Fútbol
2026-08-02
BETDeportivo Universitario Win
4.00
3.44
+4.1pp
77
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
53d ago
4.00
→
Expected Closing
3.44
Expected CLV
+4.1pp
Why
Deportivo Universitario has a strong drift signal and a positive closing edge of 10.64. The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, and the odds have drifted upward, presenting value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences slightly favor Veraguas.
1Honduras U20 vs Panama U200-4
✓ Correct
CONCACAF U20
2026-08-02
FADEContrarianPanama U20 Win
2.15
2.17
-0.4pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
53d ago
2.15
→
Expected Closing
2.17
Expected CLV
-0.4pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed towards Panama U20, but the model probability for Honduras U20 is significantly lower than the market's implied probability. This suggests an overreaction to the drift. Main risk: Honduras U20's slight xG advantage may not materialize into a win.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.15
2026-08-02
Candidate pick
@ 2.15
—
Closing
@ 2.17
2Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central0-1
✗ Incorrect
Liga Profesional Argentina
2026-08-02
FADEContrarianDeportivo Riestra Win
4.50
2.25
+22.2pp
68
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
53d ago
4.50
→
Expected Closing
2.25
Expected CLV
+22.2pp
Why
The market has strongly drifted away from Barracas Central, but the model probability for them is significantly lower than the market's implied probability. This indicates potential value in fading the home side. Main risk: Deportivo Riestra's xG advantage and home field.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.50
2026-08-02
Candidate pick
@ 4.50
—
Closing
@ 2.25
3Pirin Blagoevgrad vs CSKA Sofia II0-3
✓ Correct
Second League
2026-08-02
FADEValuation disagreementCSKA Sofia II Win
2.60
2.10
+9.2pp
65
⚡
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
53d ago
2.60
→
Expected Closing
2.10
Expected CLV
+9.2pp
Why
The market has drifted against Pirin Blagoevgrad, but the model probability is still lower than the market's implied probability. This suggests an overreaction to the drift. Main risk: CSKA Sofia II's superior Elo rating could play a significant role.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.60
2026-08-01
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=65, breadth=71%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=62.1h, hist_n=456, hist_clv_rate=2%)
