1Benfica vs Aarhus3-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa League
2026-08-18
BETAarhus Win
9.50
14.32
-3.5pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
37d ago
9.50
→
Expected Closing
14.32
Expected CLV
-3.5pp
Why
Aarhus has a strong steam score of 92 and a significant positive closing edge of 23.71 percentage points. The model probability of 34.24% is much higher than the market's implied probability of 10.53%, indicating value. Main risk: Benfica's higher league quality and home advantage.
Everton U21 shows a strong drift with a steam score of 78 and a positive closing edge of 19.69 percentage points. The model probability of 29.69% is significantly above the market probability of 10.0%. Main risk: The odds drift suggests market skepticism about Everton U21's chances.
Cienciano has a strong model probability of 34.43% compared to the market's 5.88%, and a massive closing edge of 28.55 percentage points. However, the steam score is only moderate at 54, and Botafogo's home advantage and higher league quality make this a risky fade. Main risk: Botafogo's dominance and low odds.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
17.00
2026-08-18
Candidate pick
@ 17.00
2026-08-18
Withdrawn before validation
@ 17.00
2026-08-19
Pass
Ranked 13/135 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.2). Main risk: N/A.
Bihor Oradea has seen a significant steam move with odds dropping from 4.07 to 2.76, indicating sharp action on the home side. Despite a slight negative closing edge, the strong steam and 100% breadth suggest a high level of market confidence. Main risk: Slightly negative closing edge and lower elo rating.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.76
2026-08-18
Candidate pick
@ 2.76
—
Closing
@ 2.39
2Elche vs BarcelonaLa Liga
2026-08-18
FADEBarcelona Win
9.00
1.33
+64.1pp
85
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
37d ago
9.00
→
Expected Closing
1.33
Expected CLV
+64.1pp
Why
Barcelona's odds have drifted from 1.08 to 1.1, and Elche has seen strong steam with a 30.8% move in their favor. While Barcelona remains heavy favorites, the market movement suggests some overconfidence in their win probability. Main risk: Barcelona's significant quality advantage.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
2026-08-18
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
2026-08-18
Replaced with updated pick
@ 9.00
2026-08-19
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
2026-08-19
Withdrawn before validation
@ 9.00
2026-08-22
Pass
Ranked 8/117 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 99.89). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 1.33
3CF Pachuca vs Puebla2-3
✓ Correct
Liga MX
2026-08-18
BETPuebla Win
6.25
6.19
+0.2pp
74
🔥
▾
Entry
37d ago
6.25
→
Expected Closing
6.19
Expected CLV
+0.2pp
Why
Puebla has experienced a strong steam move with odds dropping from 8.0 to 6.25, supported by a positive closing edge of 11.22 percentage points. The slight elo and xG advantages for Puebla further support this bet. Main risk: Limited historical pattern similarity.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.25
2026-08-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=62, breadth=62%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=74.0h, hist_n=356, hist_clv_rate=7%)
2026-08-17
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=62, breadth=62%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=26.1h, hist_n=338, hist_clv_rate=9%)
2026-08-18
Candidate pick
@ 6.25
—
Closing
@ 6.19
4Benfica vs Aarhus3-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa League
2026-08-18
BETAarhus Win
9.50
14.32
-3.5pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
37d ago
9.50
→
Expected Closing
14.32
Expected CLV
-3.5pp
Why
Aarhus has seen a sharp odds drop from 13.0 to 9.5, indicating strong market interest. The closing edge is highly positive at 23.71 percentage points, suggesting value. Main risk: Significant elo disadvantage for Aarhus.
Tigres FC has experienced a notable steam move with odds dropping from 3.5 to 2.88, supported by 83.3% breadth. Despite a slight negative closing edge, the market movement suggests potential value. Main risk: Negative elo and xG differentials.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.88
2026-08-18
Candidate pick
@ 2.88
2026-08-18
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.88
2026-08-19
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=44, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=17.9h, hist_n=208, hist_clv_rate=6%)
1Leones FC vs Real Cundinamarca1-1
✗ Incorrect
Primera B
2026-08-18
FADEValuation disagreementReal Cundinamarca Win
2.80
2.63
+2.3pp
75
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
37d ago
2.80
→
Expected Closing
2.63
Expected CLV
+2.3pp
Why
Leones FC has seen significant drift in odds, indicating market skepticism. The model probability for Leones FC is much lower than the market's, and the closing edge is strongly negative. Main risk: The market may have overreacted to recent form or news, and the drift could correct closer to kickoff.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.80
2026-08-10
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; odds move must be ≥8%; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=30, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=21.9h, hist_n=125, hist_clv_rate=11%)
2026-08-18
Candidate pick
@ 2.80
—
Closing
@ 2.63
2Bihor Oradea vs Farul Constanta1-0
✗ Incorrect
Cupa României
2026-08-18
FADEContrarianFarul Constanta Win
2.76
2.63
+1.8pp
65
🔥
▾
Entry
37d ago
2.76
→
Expected Closing
2.63
Expected CLV
+1.8pp
Why
Bihor Oradea has seen strong steam with a significant odds drop, but the model probability is slightly lower than the market's. The closing edge is negative, and the Elo and xG differences are not strongly in their favor. Main risk: The sharp steam could indicate insider information or a genuine market correction.
