Veroskronos Tsuno has strong steam (97) and a significant closing edge of 20.39pp, indicating sharp market support. The model probability (37.06%) is substantially higher than the market probability (16.67%), suggesting value. Main risk: The team has a slight Elo disadvantage (-2.5), which could impact performance.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.00
2026-08-19
Candidate pick
@ 6.00
—
Closing
@ 4.75
2Getafe vs FK Partizan3-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-08-19
BETFK Partizan Win
9.50
8.62
+1.1pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
36d ago
9.50
→
Expected Closing
8.62
Expected CLV
+1.1pp
Why
FK Partizan shows strong drift (steam score 82) and an exceptional closing edge of 25.58pp. The model probability (36.11%) is significantly higher than the market probability (10.53%), providing value. Main risk: Elo disadvantage (-55.7) could hinder their chances.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.50
2026-08-19
Candidate pick
@ 9.50
—
Closing
@ 8.62
3Motherwell vs SC Freiburg1-3
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-08-19
BETMotherwell Win
6.50
5.18
+3.9pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
36d ago
6.50
→
Expected Closing
5.18
Expected CLV
+3.9pp
Why
Motherwell has strong drift (steam score 80) and a closing edge of 20.73pp. The model probability (36.11%) is much higher than the market probability (15.38%), indicating value. Main risk: Elo disadvantage (-52.4) against SC Freiburg.
Strong steam on Veroskronos Tsuno with a significant odds drop from 9.0 to 6.0 and a high steam score of 97. The model probability (37.06%) is significantly higher than the market probability (16.67%), indicating value. Main risk: Low historical pattern similarity and negative elo differential.
Minerul Lupeni has strong steam with a 36.4% odds drop and a steam score of 95. The model probability (38.49%) exceeds the market probability (30.3%), suggesting value. Main risk: Slightly negative elo differential.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.30
2026-08-19
Candidate pick
@ 3.30
—
Closing
@ 4.07
3Elche vs BarcelonaLa Liga
2026-08-19
FADEElche Win
9.00
8.91
+0.1pp
65
🔥
▾
Entry
36d ago
9.00
→
Expected Closing
8.91
Expected CLV
+0.1pp
Why
Elche has sharp steam and a notable odds drop from 13.0 to 9.0. However, the extreme elo differential (-137.2) and negative xG differential make this a risky proposition. Main risk: Overwhelming strength of Barcelona.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
2026-08-18
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
2026-08-18
Replaced with updated pick
@ 9.00
2026-08-19
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
2026-08-19
Withdrawn before validation
@ 9.00
2026-08-22
Pass
Ranked 8/117 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 99.89). Main risk: N/A.
Bogota FC shows strong steam with a 27% odds drop and a steam score of 92. The model probability (25.37%) is slightly higher than the market probability (23.81%). Main risk: Low closing edge and potential overreaction to steam.
Jakubov has strong steam with a 23.3% odds drop and a model probability (31.03%) significantly higher than the market probability (17.39%). Main risk: Negative elo and xG differentials.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
36d ago
3.10
→
Expected Closing
2.06
Expected CLV
+16.3pp
Why
Palestino's odds have drifted significantly, but their model probability is still below the market's, suggesting limited value on the away side. O'Higgins has a slight Elo disadvantage but is at home, where they tend to perform better. The market may be overestimating O'Higgins' home advantage. Main risk: Palestino's xG advantage and recent form could lead to an away win despite the drift.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.10
2026-08-18
Candidate pick
@ 3.10
2026-08-19
Update
@ 3.10
2026-08-19
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.10
2026-08-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=50, breadth=29%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=45.9h, hist_n=93, hist_clv_rate=18%)
—
Closing
@ 2.06
2Austin vs Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
2026-08-19
FADEValuation disagreementPhiladelphia Union Win
3.10
2.02
+17.2pp
75
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
36d ago
3.10
→
Expected Closing
2.02
Expected CLV
+17.2pp
Why
The market is heavily drifting against Austin, with a significant drop in their implied probability. However, the model probability for Austin is much lower than the market's, indicating that the drift is justified. Philadelphia Union has a stronger Elo rating and xG advantage, but the market may be overreacting to Austin's perceived weakness. Main risk: Philadelphia Union's superior metrics and Austin's poor form could validate the market's move.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.10
2026-08-19
Candidate pick
@ 3.10
2026-08-19
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.10
2026-08-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=67, breadth=77%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=23.4h, hist_n=298, hist_clv_rate=10%)
—
Closing
@ 2.02
3FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava3-0
✗ Incorrect
Czech Liga
2026-08-19
BETValuation disagreementBaník Ostrava Win
3.01
4.29
-9.9pp
65
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
36d ago
3.01
→
Expected Closing
4.29
Expected CLV
-9.9pp
Why
Baník Ostrava has seen strong steam support, with their odds shortening significantly. While the model probability is slightly below the market's, the Elo and xG metrics favor Baník Ostrava, and the steam suggests sharp money backing them. Main risk: FK Jablonec's home advantage and potential market overreaction to the steam.
