Queen of the South has strong drift signals with a closing edge of 25.3 and a significant model probability advantage over market probability. The odds movement indicates value, and the league quality is solid. Main risk: Away teams in lower leagues can struggle to convert model advantages into results.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-09-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=108.7h, hist_n=109, hist_clv_rate=12%)
2026-09-17
Pass
Ranked 5/159 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.4). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-18
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
2026-09-18
Withdrawn before validation
@ 8.50
2026-09-19
Pass
Ranked 59/220 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.57). Main risk: N/A.
Hanácká shows strong market steam with a closing edge of 21.21 and a model probability significantly higher than market probability. The odds movement supports value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor the home side slightly, which could impact performance.
Excelsior has strong drift signals and a closing edge of 21.6, with model probability far exceeding market probability. The odds movement suggests potential value. Main risk: Excelsior faces a tough opponent in Ajax, which could limit their chances despite the value.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.50
2026-09-15
Pass
Ranked 7/131 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.42). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-16
Pass
Ranked 10/163 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.42). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-17
Pass
Ranked 25/159 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.95). Main risk: N/A.
1Hartlepool vs WorthingNational League
2026-09-18
BETWorthing Win
2.90
2.81
+1.1pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
5d ago
2.90
→
Expected Closing
2.81
Expected CLV
+1.1pp
Why
Worthing has experienced strong steam with a sharp odds drop from 3.8 to 2.9, indicating significant market interest. The low volatility and sharp repricing suggest a strong market signal. Main risk: Limited historical pattern similarity and marginal model-market gap.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.90
2026-09-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=106.2h, hist_n=109, hist_clv_rate=12%)
2026-09-18
Candidate pick
@ 2.90
2026-09-18
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.90
2026-09-19
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 4/123, pre-LLM score 107.3). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 2.81
2MO Bejaia vs MO Constantine0-0
✗ Incorrect
Ligue 2
2026-09-18
BETMO Constantine Win
4.50
5.26
-3.2pp
90
🔥
▾
Entry
5d ago
4.50
→
Expected Closing
5.26
Expected CLV
-3.2pp
Why
MO Constantine has seen a massive odds drop from 7.5 to 4.5, with a closing edge of 11.09 percentage points. The market is sharply repricing, and the model probability of 33.31% exceeds the market probability of 22.22%. Main risk: Limited historical pattern similarity and potential overreaction to steam.
Chicago Red Stars W has seen strong steam, but their Elo and xG metrics are notably weaker, with a significant Elo deficit of -147.2. The market may be overreacting to the steam. Main risk: Market repricing could align with an unexpected team improvement.
Chico has experienced a significant odds drop from 15.0 to 8.5, with a closing edge of 11.27 percentage points and strong steam. The market probability of 11.76% is much lower than the model's 23.03%. Main risk: High volatility in this match could lead to unpredictable outcomes.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-09-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=113.7h, hist_n=109, hist_clv_rate=12%)
2026-09-17
Pass
Ranked 60/81 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 76.82). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-18
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
2026-09-18
Withdrawn before validation
@ 8.50
2026-09-19
Pass
Ranked 12/123 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 99.07). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 12.40
5Huesca vs Atlético Madrid IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
2026-09-18
BETAtlético Madrid II Win
3.60
3.68
-0.6pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
5d ago
3.60
→
Expected Closing
3.68
Expected CLV
-0.6pp
Why
Atlético Madrid II has seen strong steam with odds dropping from 4.5 to 3.6. The model probability of 36.59% is significantly higher than the market probability of 27.78%, suggesting value. Main risk: Moderate Elo advantage for Huesca could counteract the steam.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.60
2026-09-17
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=65.7h, hist_n=108, hist_clv_rate=12%)
2026-09-18
Candidate pick
@ 3.60
2026-09-18
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.60
2026-09-19
Pass
Ranked 37/123 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.67). Main risk: N/A.
